137
FXUS61 KILN 210538
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
138 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a brief return to warm and dry
conditions for Saturday before an unsettled pattern arrives
starting Sunday afternoon with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms continuing through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Removed fog for tonight given a significant dewpoint
depression noted on just about all model guidance.

Cloud cover will increase ahead of a line of significantly
dissipating showers. This will be followed by some lower sc
before clearing, likely before daybreak.

Low temperatures in the middle 60s have not been adjusted by
more than a degree for any one location.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
After a bit of patchy fog to start the day, surface high
pressure will briefly build into the lower Great Lakes on
Saturday through Saturday night. Mid-level ridging will also
extend back northeast into our area keeping us in a warm and dry
air mass. High temperatures will once again reach to around 90
degrees, which is 13-14 degrees above normal for this time of
year. Lows Saturday night will remain in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the long term
with daily precipitation chances. There is decent model agreement in
the Sunday through Wednesday timeframe and therefore confidence is
higher.  Thursday and Friday has more variability and therefore kept
precipitation chances lower during that time.

Temperatures on Sunday will be warm in advance of the rain moving
into the region.  Cooler temperatures will be in place for the
remainder of the week with the daily precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak boundary will move east across the area this morning and
it will be tough to rule out a few showers associated with this.
Otherwise, expect scattered to broken primarily VFR stratocumulus
to persist through the morning hours. Drier air will then filter
into the region through this afternoon, leading to a decreasing
cloud trend through the rest of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Hazardous weather is not expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL