627
FXUS61 KILN 051959
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
359 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms tonight. High
pressure will provide drier weather on Thursday and Friday. The
threat for showers and thunderstorms returns during the weekend
when a couple of disturbances are forecast to travel across the
Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms have been developing ahead of a cold
front situated over Indiana. These lines and cells have less
coverage than expected, though coverage should increase as the
front reaches the unstable air in place here. With the front
moving through this evening, still going with likely to
categorical pops. Severe threat appears diminished due to lack
of organization into stronger cells and lines of storms.
Isolated heavy downpours may be observed from an environment
containing 1.6 inches PWAT and favorable warm cloud depth.
Drier air working in behind the front should bring an end to
precip later tonight. Lows are forecast to range from the low
60s in the west to the upper 60s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be east, while high pressure settles to the
west. This will leave ILN in a weakly cyclonic flow between the
two systems. Due to a general lack of moisture and shallow, weak
instability, it appears we will observe dry weather Thursday and
Thursday night.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Thursday with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Additional cold advection and
radiational cooling will allow lows in the mid and upper 50s
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level disturbances will keep some precipitation chances around
at times from Friday through Monday.  There is a limited amount of
moisture and therefore do not have overly high precipitation
chances.  Dry conditions are then expected for Tuesday through
Wednesday.

Breezy conditions will be present for the weekend Friday through
Sunday, especially during the daytime hours with wind gusts around
30 to 35 mph at times.

There will be plenty of 70s for high temperatures in the extended.
with a few 60s will be possible Friday and 80s for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aviation will be impacted by a cold front and associated
convection with lowered ceilings and visibilities. Clusters of
showers and thunderstorms developing in moist and unstable air
ahead of the front are expected at all sites. MVFR conditions
are forecast with the showers and thunderstorms. Winds outside
of storms may gust around 20 knots this afternoon. Kept higher
thunderstorm gusts out of the forecast for now due to
uncertainty of timing and location. Improvement to VFR may occur
this evening as drier works in immediately behind the front.
MVFR ceilings may then reform later tonight in persistent low
level moisture. VFR is likely Thursday as high pressure takes
over.

OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
night and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio