763
FXUS61 KILN 131943
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
343 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach tonight and move through on Friday.
After the frontal boundary moves through on Friday, several
days of dry conditions are expected. An extended period of hot
weather is expected starting on Sunday with temperatures above
90 degrees expected each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Dry conditions are expected into the early evening hours. A few
showers will be possible later on this evening. Additional
showers and some thunderstorms will be possible overnight in
advance of a cold front. Precipitation will be on a diminishing
trend as it moves into the area and therefore not expecting
heavy rainfall. With cloud cover tonight, lows will only drop
into the 60s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Going into the late morning hours and into the afternoon on
Friday there will be some additional redevelopment with the
frontal boundary especially across eastern portions of the
region. There is some instability and therefore the potential
for some of this activity to be in the form of thunderstorms.
The cold front will move through ushering in slightly cooler air
with low temperatures Friday night dropping into the middle 50s
to around 60. Dry conditions are expected for Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A prolonged period of heat and humidity will be the major story in
the extended forecast, beginning on Sunday and continuing into much
of next week.

For the period Saturday into Saturday night, surface high pressure
will extend across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures will be near climatological norms along with lower
humidity due to a northeast surface flow veering to a more easterly
direction during the period. Highs will range from the lower to
perhaps mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

As previously stated, increasing heat and humidity will be the major
story Sunday through Thursday. Will be relying on the ECMWF/EPS
solution which builds a strong anomalous mid level ridge across the
Ohio Valley which will then extend east into the mid Atlantic and
parts of New England. Temperatures will warm some on Sunday, highs
in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Surface moisture will begin to
creep up as the surface flow becomes southerly in direction. We may
see a few spots touch mid 90 heat indices, especially along and
south of the Ohio River. For the period Monday through Thursday,
temperatures will increase to well above normal readings for mid
June (normals highs in the lower 80s, lows in the lower 60s) with
highs generally in the mid and upper 90s (a 100 degree reading is
withing the realm of possibility). Will have to watch the
possibility of reaching record highs. Surface moisture will
fluctuate slightly through the period, depending on direction
(south/southwest slightly higher, southeast, slightly lower), but
overall peak heat indices will range between 100 and 105. Nighttime
lows in the lower to mid 70s will offer little relief. Chances of
rain through this period is expected to remain low, with a 10 to 15
percent chance of a pop up shower/storm in the afternoon and evening
possible due to the diurnal instability.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry conditions will start out the TAF period. Showers will
approach and move through the TAF sites overnight and into the
day on Friday as a cold front approaches and moves through the
region. There is some instability so there will likely be some
thunderstorms, however confidence in any one location or time is
not high enough to include at this time. Winds will shift
through the TAF period with the precipitation and frontal
boundary moving through.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...