090
FXUS61 KILN 051350
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
950 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will occur today ahead of a cold front
crossing east through the region tonight with dry air found in
its wake. However, cold air aloft may combine with daytime
heating to produce scattered shower activity on both Thursday
and Friday afternoon in an otherwise dry pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Increasing moisture, instability, and lift ahead of a cold
front will result in isolated to scattered showers this morning,
with thunderstorms also possible. While an initial batch of
showers is exiting east, additional showers are moving up from
Central Kentucky.

Stronger convection is expected this afternoon as the cold front
arrives. A line of thunderstorms currently over Eastern Illinois
will reach Northwest Ohio around 4 pm. Additional storms are
likely to develop and push across the Dayton and Cincinnati
areas by around 6 pm. From an environment holding upwards of
1000 J/KG CAPE and moderately strong winds aloft, there will be
a chance for isolated damaging winds with some of the storms,
though the latest HRRR keeps gusts below severe limits. Heavy
downpours are also probable with PWAT over 1.5 inches and warm
cloud depth over 10000 ft.

Highs will be a touch lower than yesterday, ranging from near
80 in the southwest to the mid 80s in the north and northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Thunderstorm activity will be ongoing this evening, with the
forcing ahead of the approaching cold front increasing the
potential for damaging winds. The cold front will cross in the
late evening in the west, a little after midnight in the east.
As it does pass, any precip will rapidly come to an end.

Low temperatures will range from 60 in the west to 65 in the
east with decreasing cloud cover.

Upper level energy nosing into northern Ohio from a deep low
pressure center in the northern Great Lakes could combine with
an overturning atmosphere due to cold air aloft to spark
afternoon showers, moreso in eastern and northern CWA. This
scenario will need to overcome a dry lower atmosphere which is
well established in the post-frontal environment.

Highs will be a degree or two on either side of 80, warmest in
northern Kentucky.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure offering a dry
period Thursday night into the first part of Friday. The flow
around a mid level low settling into the eastern Great Lakes may
lead to a few showers over the far northeast. This chance will
be diurnally driven Friday and Saturday afternoon with only
slight chance pops.

Energy rotating around the mid level low will result in a hang
back trof/new low over the Great Lakes late this weekend into
early next week. Considerable model solution spread is observed
in the depth of this trof and how progressive this is.
Deterministic GFS is more progressive than the ECMWF but the GFS
ensemble shows more of a lingering trof - which is more similar
to the deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble solution.

Have slight chance to chance pops Sunday and Monday with a
diurnal uptick during the afternoon. Have a dry forecast Tuesday
as minor ridging builds into the area.

Temperatures look to trend below normal Friday with highs
ranging from the lower 70s to the mid 70s and then near normal
Saturday and Sunday and Monday when readings are expected to top
out between 75 and 80. Only a rise of a couple of degrees are
expected for Tuesday with reading still close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low stratus over IN and western OH looks to slowly move east
before mixing out in the next few hours, possibly affecting DAY
a bit longer through 16Z as this terminal looks to be solidly in
the area of these low clouds. Shower activity is not affecting
any terminals attm. ARW model was heavily weighted in the
forecast as it best represented current precip areas over the
region. This had the shower activity hold off until around noon
or a little after for much of the CWA and terminals. CVG/LUK
could see an earlier start, but if it does fire in the tri-state
before this, it will be scattered and not necessarily at or near
these terminals.

A significant set of models are relatively rain-free over the
CWA through 18Z and then begin ramping up the convection for the
rest of the afternoon into the evening hours. Activity will be
most concentrated immediately ahead of a cold front late today
and early evening, then end as the front passes in the latter
part of the evening.

Aside from the IFR cigs noted now and in the immediate future, did
not introduce MVFR cigs in showers until after 17-18Z, a little
later 19-20Z further northeast at ILN and CMH/LCK. Showers and
thunderstorms will become widespread for a few hours beginning
in the late day and ending later in the evening, ending with
the cold frontal passage.

OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs/vsbys may occur in showers and
thunderstorms that are possible Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Franks