130
FXUS63 KIWX 042257
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
657 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid this afternoon followed by scattered showers
  and thunderstorms tonight.

- Showers and thunderstorms persist through Wednesday afternoon.
  Some of these storms may be strong, particularly across
  northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio.

- Turning cooler starting Thursday with passing showers at
  times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Warm afternoon on tap today as riding over the midwest leads to
upper level height increases. Temperatures will top out in the
mid to upper 80s. A couple of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this evening along the eastern flank of a slow moving
surface low / MCV currently over northeast Missouri. However,
better upper-level support arrives overnight into Wednesday
morning out ahead of a mid- level trough that is currently
moving out of the Central Plains. Precipitation chances (60-80%)
will be favored along the western half of the CWA. By late
morning and through the remainder of the afternoon hours, storms
will increase in intensity as they advance east out ahead and
along a cold front marching across the area. Instability and
synoptic support will be favorable, however marginal bulk shear
(around 25kt) and meager mid-level lapse rates will preclude any
bigger concern. Nevertheless, some strong to marginally severe
wind gusts will be possible due to steep low-level lapse rates,
particularly over NE Indiana and NW Ohio.

A prolonged pattern shift will round out the remainder of the
forecast period as an upper-level low meanders over the Great
Lakes region. Cooler temperatures and low rain shower chances
(10-20%) each day. Fortunately, no significant weather episode
is expected through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Mainly VFR conditions through about 12z Wed for KFWA and through
18z for KSBN. MVFR expected after those times. Overnight will
have scattered showers moving through the area. A few isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across the CWA but kept mention
out for both TAF sites through 18z Wed with confidence pretty
low on coverage with loss of diurnal heating. After 18z Wed for
both sites added mentions of thunder with scattered
showers/thunderstorms a better bet with more ideal diurnal
conditions and the approach of a cold frontal boundary into the
forecast area.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Andersen