Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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252 FXUS63 KIWX 081523 CCA AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1123 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers from mid afternoon into this evening, most numerous in northwestern Indiana and far southern Lower Michigan. - At this time, the only chance for rain this upcoming week is Thursday night which includes a chance for showers and storms. - Cool today through Tuesday with highs in the 70s, becoming very warm Thursday into the following weekend with highs in the 80s. 90s possible late. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1103 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Forecast generally on track with some challenges lingering on timing, coverage and possibly intensity of showers expected mid afternoon into this evening. 2 areas of rain/rain showers were located from eastern Iowa into much of Wisconsin as well as across southern Illinois. In between these, light radar returns were noted across central and portions of northern Illinois that are not reaching the ground, which is no surprise based on the 12Z KILX sounding still showing a fair amount of dry air below 800 mb. The area of showers to the north is being fed by a narrow influx of low 60 dewpoints along and behind the warm front with CAMs suggesting this moister air should advect into the area later this afternoon and evening. Questions remain as to whether the current area weakens and then additional showers develop along the increasing convergence along the boundary and influx of better moisture or does the mcv maintain itself. Making some minor changes with regards to timing, but for now holding off on reintroducing thunder given poor overall instability despite the somewhat higher dewpoints. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 An upper level system was just upstream from IL to far east KS. This system will move east today and bring showers to the area. Continued to keep thunder out given the lack of instability and insufficiency of larger scale lift. The GFS has been consistent with this system and still favors timing in about a 9 hour window from 18Z to 03Z early tonight per 305K isentropic analysis. The back/west side of the upper trof will remain over the region until upper level ridging builds into the area later in the week. Have kept the lone chance for showers/thunder Thursday night as a weak front moves southeast. There is an increasingly stronger signal for a hot pattern to develop just past the end of the forecast period as reflected in the latest CPC outlook (risk of excessive heat). Otherwise, highs will be in the 70s through Tuesday then highs in the 80s the rest of the week. Given 850 mb temperatures approaching 20C, highs in the lower 90s are possible just past the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 520 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions expected to give way to a period of MVFR cigs and scattered showers (best chances at KSBN) late this afternoon into this evening as a cold front sags south into northern IN. Southwest winds will pick up otherwise in advance of the front late this morning and afternoon with gusts near 20 kts. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fisher DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Steinwedel