Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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941 FXUS63 KIWX 111921 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 321 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heating up in the coming days; highs in the mid 80s Wednesday, then upper 80s to low 90s Thursday. - The next chance for rain and storms arrives 4 to 10 PM EDT Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. - Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices upwards of 100 to 105 degrees starting on Father`s Day through at least the middle of next week! Can`t rule out a few low chances (20% or less) for showers and storms but this timeframe looks mainly dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Hope you enjoyed the cool mornings and seasonable daytime temperatures the past few days! We are unlikely to experience any more cooler than normal days in the upcoming weeks as summer takes hold! With several dry days, ample mixing today has led to temperatures climbing 30 to 35 above where they were in the low to mid 40s this morning for lows! Northerly winds have kept seasonable temperatures around today, but this will not be in the case for the rest of the week. Winds will shift on Wednesday to become southwesterly, and ample WAA will result in highs that will be in the mid 80s to low 90s Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure builds across the Ohio River Valley that will keep dry conditions around until later in the day Thursday. The main focus of the week aside from the approaching heat will be the return of rain and storms chances Thursday afternoon and evening. Severe weather is possible Thursday, with SPC putting the north and west portions of our area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Highs near 90 degrees and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will yield an increasingly unstable environment during the day Thursday. As an area of low pressure lifts northward through Ontario, the attendant cold front will sweep southeast through our area Thursday evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible out ahead of the front; a few storms may be strong to severe. Long range and mid range model guidance is starting to come into agreement, however, there are still some discontinuities in timing and the amount of forcing/instability present; GFS and NAM soundings depict MLCAPE of ~1000 J/kg by Thursday afternoon with around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear orthogonal to the southeastward moving frontal boundary. In addition, GFS soundings show DCAPE of ~800 J/kg, which would promote a favorable environment for isolated damaging wind gusts to occur. The best timeframe for a few severe storms will be from 4-10 PM EDT Thursday. Storms should die off as diurnal heating is lost Thursday evening. We will continue to monitor this chance for severe weather so check back for updates in the coming days! Hot and humid weather is on its way! Surface high pressure and impressive upper level ridging will build across much of the eastern CONUS this weekend, setting the stage for a `heat dome` to set up. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices pushing 100 to 105 degrees starting on Father`s Day through at least the middle of next week! Overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s will offer little to no relief from the heat. This is the typical summertime "Ring of Fire" pattern for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions where any clusters of storms that do develop tend to ride around the periphery of the heat dome. For now, the Sunday to next Wednesday timeframe appears mainly dry, with only a few low chances (20% or less) for rain/storms). For those who enjoy the hot, humid conditions of summer, you won`t have to wait too much longer! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 111 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 High pressure will keep the area dry for the next 24 hours with VFR conditions. However, mid-level clouds will start to increase overnight and lower as moisture increases ahead of the next weather system. Light westerly winds this afternoon will shift to the southwest on Thursday and increase to around 10 kts. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Cobb