782
FXUS64 KJAN 032043
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
343 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Through Tuesday: The primary focus this evening will be on an MCS
approaching from the northwest. Extrapolation brings this system
through western portions of the area this evening, but it`s still
a bit questionable how a less unstable environment over srn AR/nrn
LA might affect the integrity of the system. Assuming the system
maintains its intensity, we are keeping the threat for severe
weather going for the western half of the area, with the primary
concern being for damaging wind gusts. Thereafter, it is likely
the system will dissipate quickly should it reach eastern MS.

Going into Tuesday, we will be monitoring for the next potential
MCS as active westerlies remain over the region. Much of the
guidance shows such a system may be more likely earlier in the
day, and as has been the case, damaging wind gusts will continue
to be the primary concern.  /EC/

Tuesday night through Sunday night: the extended forecast remains
on track as an unsettled weather pattern continues through the
mid-week with shortwave disturbances and an approaching frontal
boundary moving through the area. Post frontal passage will bring
a brief drying period Friday through Sunday, but then rain
chances will return by Sunday afternoon through the end of the
period as guidance shows the aforementioned frontal boundary
lifting northward from the Gulf coast. Seasonable temperatures
are expected throughout the extended period with highs in the
upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

An active weather pattern is expected to continue Tuesday evening as
upper-level westerly/northwesterly flow pushes shortwave
disturbances from the central Plains through the region. With a
moist airmass, decent instability parameters, and bulk shear in
place, some organized convection will be possible but severe weather
is uncertain. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along/north of HWY 82 and eastern MS before spreading areawide
Wednesday.

A low pressure center near Lake Superior is expected to progress
towards the Atlantic Northeast, pushing an associated cold front
towards the southeast region Thursday. As a result,
shower/thunderstorm chances will continue. We will continue to
monitor any chances for severe weather with this system. Post
frontal passage is expected to bring quiet and slightly lower
dewpoints to the area to begin the weekend as a surface ridge
shift eastward. The aforementioned frontal system is expected to
stall near the Gulf coast and lift northward, resulting in rain
chances returning on Sunday afternoon and remaining until the end
of the period. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Heating of warm and humid air will fuel a considerable amount of
mainly afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA activity as we go through
the afternoon and into the evening. Confidence is low concerning
specific timing, but it appears an organized thunderstorm system
may move in toward western sites by early evening and potentially
impact the I-55 corridor prior to midnight. Ahead of the system,
isolated/sct convective precip should develop. As we go into
early Tue morning, the primary concerns will be for LIFR/IFR
category stratus development. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  89  73  89 /  50  40  20  50
Meridian      69  89  71  91 /  40  50  30  40
Vicksburg     72  89  73  89 /  70  30  20  50
Hattiesburg   72  91  73  92 /  30  40  20  30
Natchez       72  89  73  89 /  40  30  20  40
Greenville    72  88  73  87 /  80  40  20  60
Greenwood     71  88  73  87 /  70  50  30  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/SW/EC