Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 202109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
409 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018


Today and Tonight:

Cool dry air will continue to filter into the ArkLaMiss overnight
and through tomorrow as strong NW flow prevailing in the upper
levels help modify the airmass over the region. At the surface, a
broad region of high pressure will begin to filter into the region
from the west. Although clouds will be in place during the early
nighttime hours, they will have cleared mostly by early Wednesday
morning. This coupled with decreasing wind speeds overnight will
allow for a radiational cooling setup. Some patchy frost will be
possible in areas north of the Interstate-20 corridor. Highs
tomorrow will be warmer than today but will still remain 5-10
degrees below normal.

Wednesday through early next week:

High pressure looks to keep the region dry and mostly clear (aside
from the thin, high clouds) through Thursday night with
temperatures below normal Wednesday and trending back to average
on Thursday. A surface high center drifting across the Lower
Mississippi Valley Wednesday night should ensure very good
radiational cooling conditions and thus some non-zero potential
for another light freeze in portions of northeastern zones.
Confidence not quite high enough for a freeze in these areas to
yet go with a freeze watch (although it was considered). Really
thinking most sites (except for the typically coldest) will remain
at least degree or two above freezing for lows. However, at least
patchy frost could extend well back into central MS and the HWO
and graphics were updated to reflect this seasonal (and mainly
agricultural) threat.

By Friday at least mid to higher level clouds will be increasing a
lot and thickening with a low pressure system developing and
tracking eastward to our north through the weekend. Latest
guidance is showing more potential for a front trailing this low
pressure system to perhaps "backdoor" into our region from the
northeast early next week. If this happens then any warming trend
to decidedly above normal temperatures may only last through
Saturday and maybe into Sunday before the trend gets highly
moderated (or maybe even reversed). This aspect of the forecast
holds some uncertainty and is somewhat crucial to how next week
plays out weather-wise. If the backdoor front scenario occurs in
more than a subtle fashion then potential for training and
potentially heavy convection next week may set up more toward the
Arklatex region. However, if the backdoor front scenario does not
occur then some of our region may be in line for potentially heavy
precipitation moving in more quickly. Regardless, expect at least
low end chances of rain over mainly the northern half of the
region through the weekend and into next week. Stay tuned for a
refinement on details. /BB/


18Z TAF discussion:
A deck of MVFR CIGs continue to overspread the region. Drier air
has finally begun to enter the region from the NW however. Expect
CIGs to begin to improve from the west throughout the afternoon
and evening. Gusty winds from the NW will begin to subside after


Jackson       39  62  38  71 /   1   1   0   0
Meridian      37  62  35  68 /   6   1   0   0
Vicksburg     39  64  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   40  66  36  69 /   1   0   0   1
Natchez       41  65  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    38  61  40  67 /   1   1   0   0
Greenwood     37  59  38  68 /  12   1   0   0





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