Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KJAN 190840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
340 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Today and Tonight: Areas of dense fog continue over the area this
morning as cooling in the boundary layer behind the shallow frontal
boundary over south MS has taken advantage of the abundant moisture
in place. The HRRR continues to show these areas moving about
through about mid morning. The variability of fog density precludes
the issuance of a dense fog advisory, but will discuss it in the HWO.

Have dealt with some isolated convection overnight, mainly north of
the stationary boundary where isentropic ascent has been sufficient
to initiate. Convection through the morning will continue to be
sparse as weak capping inversion keeps the majority at bay. By noon,
dry line/frontal boundary will move in from the west with ascent
sufficient enough to erode away the cap. As the boundary moves into
eastern portions by mid afternoon during peak heating, severe storms
look probable considering the magnitude of the deep layer shear,
instability and lapse rates in place. Storms will continue to
initiate along the boundary as it slides southeast during the late
afternoon/evening, but will become more impressive the further east
they get into AL.

A secondary mid level shortwave will move in on the heels of current
wave as it departs tonight. Limited moisture availibility should
only allow for a few pockets of light rain over the northwest after
midnight and leading into Tuesday morning./26/

Tuesday through Sunday: The primary concerns for the period will be
the unseasonable cool period in the wake of the cold front for
around midweek. Of secondary concern will be rain chances
returning for this weekend.

In the wake of the cold front, unseasonable cool temperatures are
expected Tuesday into Wednesday with some unseasonable lows in the
east for Thursday night. On Tuesday, a shortwave will track
southeast across the region in northwest flow. There will be just
enough moisture of pwats below 1 inch to squeeze out some light
rain. The light rain should exit the region by Tuesday night. In
the wake of the exiting short wave a cool 1025 mb surface high
will make its way from the Southern Plains will be centered over
the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. This will occur as the upper ridge
gets more amplifide across the Rockies into the Plains. Northwest
flow will provide cool air advection for below normal temperatures
for the midweek period. Lows will dip into the middle to upper
30s across the northeast quarter of the forecast area. The surface
high will track to the east on late Thursday as we start to get
some low level return flow for Friday. A shortwave will move out
of the southwest US which will deepen a surface low over the
Central Plains. This will help to increase low level return flow
over the region. The return flow will increase low level moisture
and bring warmer than normal temperatures for Friday through the
weekend. Rain chances will develop from the north on Friday night
and will be across the region through the weekend. The cold front
will push into the region and will stall over the forecast area
during the weekend. Both the Euro and GFS were progressive with
this system./17/


06Z TAF discussion:
While IFR ceilings currently overspread the area, patchy LIFR
visibilities in fog exist at JAN and HKS. Scattered showers,
mainly across the south, will continue to diminish overnight. The
dense fog will continue to spread out overnight and continue until
mid morning Monday when conditions begin to improve. A cold front
will begin moving into the region from the west by late morning.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the
GWO, GTR and MEI areas after noon. /26/


Jackson       81  47  60  40 /  37  13  23   2
Meridian      82  51  61  39 /  40  35  25   4
Vicksburg     82  49  62  41 /  23   7  14   0
Hattiesburg   82  54  63  42 /  28  19  16   0
Natchez       84  50  63  42 /  25   5   7   0
Greenville    78  47  59  40 /  28  13  27   3
Greenwood     79  46  56  38 /  36  11  36   5




$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.