627
FXUS64 KJAN 030237
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
937 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Quiet conditions continue tonight under high pressure. Clouds will
increase in the west upon approach of a shortwave. Dry air will
tend to limit fog potential tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Rest of the Afternoon through Thursday...High pressure aloft and at
the surface continue to slowly build east into the region, as a
mid/upper level trough slowly exits east of the forecast area.  This
trough is responsible for a frontal boundary that continues to
slowly sink south through the CWA this evening and overnight. Behind
the front, slightly drier air will filter south into the region.
While along and ahead of it, very humid conditions will persist,
with some isolated showers and storms developing, particularly along
and south of the Highway 84 corridor.  This convection will
gradually dissipate after sunset this evening. Overnight, expect
mostly clear skies with some patchy shallow ground fog possible
around day break Thursday, as lows range from the upper 60s to lower
70s.

On Thursday, northwest flow aloft will exist across the region as we
remain between the departing trough along the east coast and the
high to the west.  An upper level disturbance embedded in this flow
will help to spark some showers and storms across mainly west
central and southwest portions of the CWA during the mid and later
parts of the afternoon.  Gusty wind will be possible with the more
intense storms, with frequent lightning and heavy downpours likely.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast area will remain dry, as
highs warm into the low and middle 90s. /19/

Wednesday night through Tuesday: Warmer than normal afternoon highs
will continue through the forecast period. Cooler than normal
morning lows are expected in the northeast Thursday and Friday but
return to above normal areawide Saturday morning and continue
through the end of the forecast period. Normal lows run in the lower
70s and normal highs run in the lower 90s. Peak heat index values at
or above 105F will spread become a concern in the west Sunday and
then spread a little farther east each day through Tuesday.
Otherwise, little has changed from the previous long term forecast
and the previous discussion follows:

In general, the evolving weather pattern of the next several days
will support lower rain chances as drier air is ushered into our
forecast area. The two main drivers of this pattern will be upper-
level ridging that will shift from the Plains eastward toward the
Mid-South and a low pressure disturbance slowly drifting west along
the Gulf Coast region. Subsidence associated with the ridge and the
southward trajectory of drier continental air between these two
features should push regional PWAT values below 1.5 inches for about
the northeastern 2/3rds of the forecast area Wednesday night. Mostly
drier weather expected Thursday and again on Friday, July 4th. Area
residents should still mind the weather as an isolated shower or
storm cannot be ruled out for the holiday afternoon/evening.

Depending on exactly how the coastal disturbance evolves, these
"ribbons" of moisture may overspread portions of the region with
very slight rain chances in the forecast at this time through
Sunday. Increased humidity and more typical summery temperatures
and afternoon/evening chances for showers and thunderstorms build
back into the area for Monday and Tuesday next week. /22/NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light
northerly winds. Scattered cloudcover is expected. Clouds will
increase in the southwest tomorrow afternoon with a small chance
(15-20%) for rain. Confidence is too low to include in the TAF,
but cannot rule out a stray popup storm near HEZ tomorrow
afternoon. Also cannot rule out patchy ground fog in areas that
retain higher moisture./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  92  72  93 /   0  10   0  10
Meridian      69  92  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     73  94  73  93 /   0  10   0  10
Hattiesburg   73  95  72  96 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       74  93  74  90 /   0  20  10  10
Greenville    73  92  72  93 /   0  10   0   0
Greenwood     71  92  71  95 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/22/SAS20