Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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472 FXUS62 KJAX 231808 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 208 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Flat ridging will continue to extend northeastward across our region from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, with a shortwave trough expected to traverse the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians on Friday. A relatively weak surface pressure pattern in place locally will allow the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes to develop this afternoon, progressing inland and then colliding along the Interstate 75 corridor towards sunset. There may be just enough low level moisture in place to squeeze out an isolated shower or two along the I-75 corridor towards sunset, but a relatively dry and subsident air mass will prevent sustained updrafts and will negate any chances for thunderstorms later today and this evening. Cirrus cloudiness emanating from upstream convection will continue to thin as it enters the more subsident air mass in place over our area through tonight. This subsident air mass may foster some patchy fog formation during the predawn hours along the I-75 corridor and portions of inland southeast GA. Inland lows will fall to the mid and upper 60s, ranging to the lower 70s at coastal locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure ridge will sink to the south on Friday into Friday night, as a 500mb trough moves southeast across SE GA. While much of the area will be dry on Friday, a few showers and storms will be possible over far northern forecast area counties. For Saturday into Saturday night, the surface ridge will remain to the south southeast of the area, while an upper trough is in place over region. The combination of increasingly moist southwest flow, sea breeze interactions, and upper waves moving through could result in a few showers and storms Saturday afternoon into night. Temperatures will continue to run above normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 The region will be between high pressure ridge to the southeast, and a frontal zone to the northwest during the first half of this period. This half of the period, will mainly be dry, but afternoon convection can not be ruled out, largely due to sea breeze interactions and upper waves. The frontal zone is expected to sink southeast into area and stall for Tuesday through Wednesday. This boundary will be a focus mechanism for convective development. At this time, models depict the boundary pushing through for Thursday, so better chance for Thursday to be a dry day. While temperatures will trend above normal throughout this period, the warmest stretch will be during the first half of the period, before the front arrives. A noticeable airmass change is expected following the frontal passage, with Thursday not only a little cooler, but with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A brief period of restrictions in light fog will be possible toward dawn Friday at KVQQ, otherwise Prevailing VFR conditions forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure ridge will drift south southeast of the region through Friday. The region will be between the ridge to the south southeast, and an approaching frontal system late in the weekend into early next week. The frontal zone will move southeast into the area and stall Tuesday into Wednesday, before passing through Thursday. Rip Currents: Moderate through Friday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 68 91 70 93 / 0 10 10 20 SSI 72 87 73 90 / 0 10 10 20 JAX 67 93 70 94 / 0 10 0 20 SGJ 70 90 71 92 / 0 0 0 20 GNV 67 93 67 93 / 0 10 0 20 OCF 66 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$