287
FXUS62 KJAX 200557
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
157 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Outflow boundary that originated in SE GA has pushed into NE FL
extending from coastal Duval County through the northern Suwannee
Valley this early evening. The outflow will continue to push
southward this evening with surface cool front lagging behind
north of the Altamaha River Basin. Most residual and isolated
convection remains along and ahead of the outflow boundary. The
cool front is expected to push through most of the forecast region
during the overnight hours. The convection mainly be isolated to
widely scattered over north central FL the remaining daylight
hours, become isolated during the mid to late evening. A
northeasterly flow will become established during the overnight
hours as the cold front clears the area and high pressure begins
to build down from the northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Line of showers and storms are currently skirting the Altamaha
River Basin in SE GA along the cold front. Showers and storms will
begin to develop across SE GA and eventually towards NE FL once
the cold front begins to meander south during the late afternoon.
Main concern for any storms which do develop will be damaging
wind gusts up to 60 mph, as DCAPE values hover around the 1000
J/kg range. Activity will shift towards the coast during the early
evening hours. Isolated Coastal showers will linger through the
overnight hours over the SE GA coast, with some activity possible
during the pre-dawn morning hours along the coast in NE FL. A
northeasterly flow will become established during the overnight
hours as the cold front clears the area and high pressure begins
to build down from the northeast. Overnight lows in the mid to
upper 60s for inland locations, with coastal locations hovering
near the 70 mark. Current forecast has these trends well in hand
with only minor and subtle changes to the POPS to mirror the
forecast convective chances over the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

High pressure wedges down the east coast Monday with an upper
level trough in place. Onshore flow will allow the sea-breeze to
make itself well inland, pulling some PWAT values of 1-1.4" along
with it. Rain and storm potential will be between 25-45% in the
morning along the coast and inland to the 301 corridor,
increasing inland for NE FL to 50-60%. Chances drop below 10%
after sunset. Partly cloudy skies and onshore winds will keep high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s area wide with temperatures in
the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Winds will die down in
the evening hours, with skies becoming mostly clear inland.
Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 60`s staying in
the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Tuesday, weather will be
similar to monday just a bit drier, causing lower chances of
20-40% for storms and precipitation for NE FL in the morning and
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

High pressure continues to build into the area Wednesday with an
upper level ridge moving in from the west. Expect mostly clear
skies for the rest of the week, becoming partly cloudy Friday
afternoon. Models show the next best chance for rain will be over
the weekend in the afternoon and evening high pressure wedges
down the east coast Monday with an upper level trough in place.
Onshore flow will allow the sea-breeze to make itself well inland,
pulling some PWAT values of 1-1.4" along with it. Rain and storm
potential will be between 25-45% in the morning along the coast
and inland to the 301 corridor, increasing inland for NE FL to
50-60%. Chances drop below 10% after sunset. Partly cloudy skies
and onshore winds will keep high temperatures in the low to mid
80s area wide with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s along
the coast.hours as PWAT values increase to 1.5"+ and an upper
level trough moves into the area. Temperatures will slowly climb
into the 90s by Thursday and stay through the weekend with
overnight temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

MVFR/IFR low ceilings are sinking south along the coast from SSI
to the duval county TAF sites and should sink towards SGJ over the
next hour, but remain northeast of GNV as weak high pressure builds
to the north as the low to the northeast shifts east of the South
Carolina coast. Light northerly winds 4-8 knots will become more
northeasterly towards 10Z and breezy at SSI through sunrise as
the high builds down the east coast with continued MVFR ceilings
and occasional IFR ceilings for most sites except GNV through 13Z
with MVFR ceilings rising to 2.5 kft through 15-17Z along the coast
while lifting to VFR inland after 13Z.

Monday will feature breezy conditions 10-15 knots with gusts with
higher gusts 20-25 knots near the coastal sites and 15-20 inland.
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible inland where
greater heating develops as drier air aloft shifts south across
area, limiting shower development for SSI and ending VCSH coverage
at JAX/CRG by 17Z/18Z with lingering convection over inland
Northeast Florida by 22Z. Skies will clear from the northeast by
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A slow moving cold front will continue to drift southward over
the coastal waters through the afternoon, with numerous showers
and thunderstorms developing over the coming hours into the
evening. Some of these storms may contain strong gusty winds and
heavy downpours at times. Breezy flow from the north- northeast
overnight into Monday behind the cold front. Wind speeds will be
near small craft advisory levels over the southeast Georgia waters
Monday morning. High pressure builds directly over the waters
during the middle part of next week.

Rip Currents:Low risk of Rip Currents for the remainder of the day
for all area beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast
for NE FL and SE GA beaches Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  63  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  80  70  81  69 /  10   0  10   0
JAX  81  66  84  65 /  30   0  20   0
SGJ  81  69  82  70 /  30  10  30  10
GNV  83  62  86  64 /  50   0  40   0
OCF  86  65  87  67 /  50   0  40   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$