659
FXUS62 KJAX 231705
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
105 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Late morning surface analysis depicts high pressure (1019
millibars) centered near Bermuda and extending its axis
southwestward across our region. Meanwhile, weak surface troughing
extends to the south of this surface ridge across the southeastern
Bahamas and the Greater Antilles. Aloft...ridging centered over
the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico) was extending
its axis northeastward across our region, with cutoff troughing
located to the east of this ridge axis over the Bahamas and
central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, troughing was
digging southeastward from the northern Rockies towards the High
Plains states, creating brisk zonal flow downstream of this
feature across the Southern Plains, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
Shortwave troughs embedded within this fast zonal flow pattern
were creating convection over the Ozarks, Tennessee Valley and
the Texas Hill Country, with high altitude debris cloudiness
emanating from these convective bursts progressing eastward across
the Deep South, with thinning cirrus moving overhead of our inland
counties late this morning. Plenty of sunshine and a relatively
dry and subsident air mass were allowing temperatures to climb to
the 80-85 degree range at most locations as of 15Z, with dewpoints
generally in the 65-70 range.

Flat ridging will continue to extend northeastward across our
region, with a shortwave trough expected to traverse the
Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians on Friday. Cirrus
cloudiness emanating from upstream convection will continue to
thin as it enters the more subsident air mass in place over our
area, with a relatively weak surface pressure pattern allowing for
the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes to develop early this afternoon,
progressing inland and then colliding along the Interstate 75
corridor towards sunset today. There may be just enough low level
moisture in place to squeeze out an isolated shower or two along
the I-75 corridor towards sunset, but a relatively dry and
subsident air mass will prevent sustained updrafts and will negate
any chances for thunderstorms later today and this evening.
Otherwise, plenty of sunshine will boost highs to the lower 90s
inland, with breezy onshore winds in the wake of the Atlantic sea
breeze boundary keeping coastal highs generally in the mid 80
today. Dewpoints falling through the 60s this afternoon will keep
maximum heat index values below 100 degrees today.

The subsident air mass in place may foster some patchy fog
formation during the predawn hours along the I-75 corridor and
portions of inland southeast GA. Otherwise, thin cirrus will
continue to periodically progress overhead. Inland lows will fall
to the mid and upper 60s, ranging to the lower 70s at coastal
locations.

The shortwave trough progressing across the southeastern states on
Friday could provide a little more support for isolated afternoon
convection to develop near a collision of the Atlantic and Gulf
coast sea breezes along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in southeast
GA, northeast and north central FL, mainly during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. The overall subsident nature of
our local air mass should keep convective activity brief in
duration and below strong or severe limits. Seasonably hot weather
will continue, with highs ticking up to the low and middle 90s
inland and the upper 80s at coastal locations. Dewpoints will
again fall into the 60s at inland locations on Friday afternoon,
resulting in maximum heat index values of around 100 degrees at
most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

A brief period of restrictions in light fog will be possible toward
dawn Friday at KVQQ, otherwise Prevailing VFR conditions forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  92  70  94 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  72  87  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  67  94  70  95 /   0  20  10  20
SGJ  70  88  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
GNV  67  94  68  94 /   0  10   0  20
OCF  66  94  68  94 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$