526
FXUS62 KJAX 031134
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
734 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Quick early morning update to account for land breeze showers
moving offshore of the NE FL and SE GA coast. With diurnal
heating, this activity will fade through 10 am, then winds become
onshore with the inland progressing east coast seabreeze. Light
1000-700 mb SW steering flow (5 kts) was already producing
convection near the Gulf Coast in Apalachee Bay with local land
breeze. With such light steering flow, meso/micro scale sea and
river breezes will develop today, although the east coast sea
breeze along the SE GA coast and JAX Beach north may be delayed a
little bit given broken mid clouds moving offshore. Higher rain
chance will focus this afternoon and early evening between the
Highway 301 and I-75 corridors where boundary collisions occur
within a PWAT of 1.6-1.7 inches. Deeper convection will tend to
drift back to the east, with convection gradually fading in
coverage with loss of instability.

Temperatures today will range from highs in the mid/upper 80s
coastal areas to low 90s well inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

Quiet conditions are set to continue through the rest of the
morning hours with mostly clear skies. Ridge axis extending from
an elongated area of high pressure centered over Bermuda will
continue the onshore flow and progressive Atlantic sea breeze once
again today. Enough moisture seeping eastward will combine with
convergence along the sea breeze to initiate showers as it quickly
moves inland early this afternoon. Widely scattered t`storms are
more likely to develop late this afternoon and early eventing near
the I-75 corridor and locations to the west where the Gulf and
Atlantic sea breeze interaction will occur. Significant storms are
not expected as most activity will be garden-variety in nature.
Convection will diminish quickly with the loss of heating and
instability this evening with mostly clear skies.

Temperatures will push back into the 90s at inland locations
while the coast benefits from the early afternoon sea breeze push,
keeping highs in the mid 80s. Lows tonight will track similar to
this morning with readings in the upper 60s inland and low 70s at
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night)

Surface high pressure ridging covers the area Tuesday through
Wednesday night creating a bit of a stagnant flow. Any
precipitation will likely occur in the afternoon due to diurnal
heating and the sea breeze. Chances for afternoon showers and
storms Tuesday will be 30-50% area wide with daytime temperatures
in the low 90s, staying slightly cooler along the coast. Overnight
temperatures will cool into the upper 60s to low 70s. Wednesday,
chances for afternoon showers and storms will be 50-60% with
daytime temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)

Temperatures continue to increase as the week progresses,
reaching into the upper 90s for some areas of NE FL by Thursday
and sticking around into the beginning of next week. Increasing
temperatures and moisture in the area will bring chances for
precipitation and isolated thunderstorms each afternoon with the
best chance occurring Thursday afternoon of 60 percent. A cold
front looks to make its way through towards the end of the week,
though timing and impacts are still uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Land breeze showers will near SSI over the next 1-2 hrs where
TEMPO SHRA was advertised. Otherwise, deck of mid clouds will
press offshore through late morning, as diurnally enhanced cumulus
pop inland. With light steering flow, both Atlantic and Gulf Coast
sea breezes will develop with VCSH for all terminals. As the
breezes shift inland, post sea breeze gusts near 15 kts are
expected. Boundary mergers will focus the best chance of TS
inland this afternoon and evening with the best chance of TS near
GNV, but will monitor trends radar for potential inclusion.
Convection fades will loss of diurnal instability, with VFR
conditions overnight except at the usual suspect spot VQQ due to
shallow ground/fog mist toward 12z where brief IFR conditions were
advertised.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure to the northeast will continue southeasterly winds
across the waters with winds strengthening with the afternoon sea
breeze development across the nearshore zones each afternoon
through Thursday. Flow turns offshore late this week as a cold
front approaches from the north. That front should push into and
through most of the area waters Friday night into Saturday before
eventually stalling somewhere south of St Augustine. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase across the waters late this
week as flow becomes offshore and chances will continue into the
weekend in the vicinity of the stalled front.

Rip Currents: Slightly elevated surf and onshore flow will lead to
a moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches through
Tuesday, particularly during the afternoon hours as winds
strengthen with sea breeze development.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Water levels will continue to gradually fall along lower portions
of the Santa Fe River, with minor flooding expected to continue
near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  68  92  70 /  20  30  50  20
SSI  85  73  86  74 /  30  10  30  20
JAX  89  69  90  69 /  20  10  30  10
SGJ  87  70  88  72 /  20  10  30  10
GNV  90  67  92  68 /  50  20  40  10
OCF  91  68  94  69 /  50  30  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$