008
FXUS63 KJKL 080845
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
445 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and noticeably less humid air will remain in place this
  morning, though there will be a small chance for showers during
  the afternoon and into the evening.

- The next passing cold front will bring increasing rain chances
  to eastern Kentucky later tonight into Sunday.

- Cooler air will be reinforced across the region early next
  week, before temperatures modify back to above normal by the end
  of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows relatively high pressure holding in place
over eastern Kentucky as low pressure is approaching from the
northwest. This has been able to keep the skies mostly clear
overnight allowing for another night of good radiational cooling.
As a result, temperatures currently vary from the low 50s in the
deeper valleys to around 60 on the ridges - and in more open
areas. Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints are fairly dry in
the upper 40s to lower 50s, most places. Probably due to the
drier air in place, the river valley fog has been more subdued
than last night but in evidence from the fog channel satellite
imagery.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict fairly fast, northwest, mid level flow
running through Kentucky on account of a stretched out low height
gyre to the north of the state and a large ridge to the south
along the Gulf Coast. Within this flow, several impulses will
pass through the area during the short term portion of the
forecast. The first of these moves through early this afternoon
with a slight drop in 5h heights as it passes. The next one slips
by to the south later tonight while the northern gyre digs south
into the Ohio Valley. The descent of this latter feature
continues into Sunday evening with more energy pushing into this
part of Kentucky. The model spread is still small enough that the
NBM was used as the starting point for the short term grids along
with the incorporation of the CAMs` details for PoPs from this
afternoon through Sunday evening.

Sensible weather features high pressure retreating to the east
allowing for some moisture return and showers to arise well out
ahead of an area of low pressure stretching east from the Central
Plains. A developing front pushes into this part of the state from
the west later today and will help to generate a few showers
initially but, likely after a lull, we will see lower cloud decks
into Sunday along with a better potential for convection in the
form of thunderstorms - mainly for the just the southern 2/3rds
of the JKL CWA. This shower and thunderstorm threat continues
through the afternoon Sunday as that front settles through the
Cumberland Valley, before diminishing west to east Sunday
evening. The building cloud and convection will limit terrain
differences and valley fog potential tonight as well as cap high
temperatures both today and Sunday to slightly below normal.

The main changes to the NBM starting point again consisted of
adjusting the NBM PoPs to include CAMs details for the shower
chances starting this afternoon and running through the day
Sunday. The temperatures from the NBM were tweaked early this
morning and again, to a more limited extent, tonight in order to
represent better terrain detail.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 545 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2024

Troughing will build in across the eastern CONUS into early next
week, with a reinforcing shot of cooler air to move into eastern
Kentucky, following a cold frontal passage on Sunday. This front
will bring us our best overall chance of rainfall through the
period, with PoPs peaking between 40 and 80 percent from northwest
to southeast across the area. Model guidance has overall trended a
bit drier through mid-week, with diurnally-driven slight chance
PoPs each day, as modest return flow ensues underneath west
northwest flow aloft. A cold front may approach by next Friday,
but given the timing challenges of smaller scale features this far
out, have stuck to the blended guidance, which only yielded
slight chance PoPs for the period.

Temperatures will average below normal through Wednesday morning,
with highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Monday looks to
be the coolest day overall, with highs in the mid 70s, and
overnight lows in the lower 50s, with some upper 40s possible in
the most sheltered valleys. As the core of stronger ridging pivots
from the Desert Southwest through the southern Plains, warmer air
will build in over the Tennessee and Ohio valleys Thursday through
Friday, with highs returning to the mid and upper 80s, and lows
mainly back in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT JUN 8 2024

Aside from some fog development in river valleys into dawn, VFR
conditions will prevail through the period as sfc high pressure
dominates. Light and variable winds will hold through the period.
As for cloud cover, clear skies tonight will give way to
increasing high clouds around dawn, with a passing disturbance
this afternoon bringing increased mid-level clouds into the
evening and through the remainder of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF