Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
530 FXUS62 KKEY 280832 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 432 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Water vapor imagery highlights mean-layer ridging centered over Mexico and also east of the Lesser Antilles. There is a weakness in the ridge near the west-central Caribbean. A weak surface ridge axis extends west across South Florida and the Keys. Similar to past mornings, there is a a meager southeast to south wind surge going on right now, with values at the Reef ranging from 9 to 14 knots. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower to mid 80s, although Big Pine briefly dipped into the upper 70s after sunset. .FORECAST... A series of mid-latitude short waves will dive southeast through the northeastern Gulf and Florida over the next week. The mean layer ridge centered over Mexico will remain intact, but its northeastern flank will flatten. The weakness previously noted in the west-central Caribbean will phase and gain latitude as the short waves pivot into the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles. Despite the synoptic action aloft, more of the same for the Keys over the next few days featuring slight rain chances and light to gentle breezes. A continental high pressure system will emerge from the southeastern United States Thursday night and Friday. Freshening northeast to east breezes are likely as the high matures over the western North Atlantic near Bermuda. Given the origin air mass, heavily modified cP air will flush through the Keys as dewpoints in the upper 60s. This will be a remarkable late season backdoor cold front in early June, which is almost unheard of. There remains some mixed signals for the potential of rain chances this weekend. A stalled front nearby and boisterous BL breezes bode well for at least 30% rain/thunder chances through the extended, which is what we continue to advertise. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Light to gentle breezes will prevail today through Thursday night. High pressure will emerge from the southeastern United States before the weekend, then build across the western North Atlantic. Fresh northeast to east breezes are possible by Friday night or Saturday as the high matures near Bermuda. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period, with near-nil rain and thunder chances. Surface winds will be out of the southeast at 7 to 12 knots this morning into the afternoon hours before becoming variable. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record warm low temperature of 83F was recorded in Key West set back in 2020. As of this morning, EYW has not dropped below 84 degrees, therefore, if it does not drop below 83 degrees by midnight, we will have set/tied yet another record warm min temperature. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. Also, the daily record warm low temperature of 82 degrees was recorded in Marathon set back in 2020. As of this morning, MTH has not dropped below 84 degrees, therefore, if it does not drop below 82 degrees by midnight, we will have set/tied this record warm low temperature. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 82 91 81 / 0 10 10 10 Marathon 91 82 91 82 / 10 20 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest