Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
870 FXUS62 KKEY 211447 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1047 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Composite vorticity analysis places an area of low pressure centered just east of the Florida First Coast from the surface up to around 500 mb, and another broad area of low pressure centered in the western Gulf of Mexico. These features are interacting with broad high pressure centered north of Bermuda to produce a net east to southeast steering flow. Dry air sampled in last evening`s sounding up to around 750 mb has been largely eradicated, as the aforementioned low pressure features advect deep, tropical moisture in from the southeast towards the Keys. KBYX and KAMX Doppler radar`s have been detecting minimal shower activity thus far this morning, although this is expected to change over the next several hours. An uncapped tropospheric profile sampled this morning at KEY, along with no inhibition and increased boundary layer moisture, will support proliferation of scattered showers and thunderstorms by late this afternoon or evening. Available convective allowing model (CAM) guidance supports this meteorological reasoning, although there remains a bit of uncertainty in timing of convective triggering. Bouts of broken sunshine should allow temperatures to reach the upper 80s during peak heating. No changes proposed to the inherited short- term forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1045 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Although Florida Keys marine zones are generally dry for now, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon or this evening. Any stronger thunderstorm will have the potential to produce blinding downpours, gusty winds and confused seas, and cloud to surface lightning strikes. From synopsis, interaction among low pressure off the east coast of Florida, high pressure centered north of Bermuda, and broad low pressure in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula will result in gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes over the next few days. Moisture pulled into our area via the low to the west will result in waves of unsettled weather this weekend. High pressure building over the North Atlantic early next week will result in light to gentle southeast to south breezes and a return to near- normal rain and thunder chances. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Shower activity will return later this afternoon into the evening so VCSH is included. Near surface winds are easterly at near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... In 1986, an F1 tornado caused $250k in damage between Plantation and Tavernier. Tropical Storm Bonnie formed two days later on the 23rd in the central Gulf of Mexico moving westward, so this tornado may have been caused by the initial depression/circulation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 88 79 88 / 50 50 50 50 Marathon 80 88 80 88 / 50 50 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest