Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
043 FXUS62 KKEY 091430 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1029 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A precariously quiet start to the day across the Florida Keys. The Keys lie on the western periphery of a broad low level ridge. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary has stalled across the Florida Panhandle. This is making for a light steering flow just above the BL with light to gentle southerly winds at the surface. This has set up a narrow area of convergence that lies just north of our waters, extending roughly from D Tower to the Everglades. Here showers are building due to the flow slowing down and changing directions at this juncture. To the south of this boundary, there are lighter showers forming off cloud streamers moving along through the southerly flow. A few of these showers have teased the Upper Keys but thus far most of the activity has stayed over the waters north of the island chain. Lack of precipitation, clouds, and a southerly wind is allowing temperatures to steadily march into the mid and upper 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. No changes were made to the going forecast. As the day progresses and the aforementioned front holds across northern Florida, the mainland and Cuba will both heat up in the afternoon. This will lead to a divergent and weak flow over the Keys. As such, the current boundary just to our north that is producing showers, could sink southward through the day and approach the Keys by this afternoon and evening. Hi-res models suggest that as this boundary sags southward that new convection could fire, especially if we are able to get a reverse cloudline today. Given that we will generally stay south to southwest, the chances are good for at least a cloudline across the Lower Keys. Therefore, will maintain 40 percent PoPs for this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1029 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The pattern will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida. This will result in light to gentle southerly breezes across the Keys coastal waters this afternoon through Monday. Freshening breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather may begin as early as Tuesday and will persist through Thursday night. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both terminals through the TAF period. Some guidance has been hinting at the risk for showers and potentially thunderstorms to impact the terminals sometime this afternoon and evening but the confidence in where and timing is uncertain. Therefore, kept VCSH out of the TAF for now. Near-surface winds will gradually shift from south-southwesterly to south- southeasterly at 5 to 11 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 1997 the daily record rainfall of 3.18" was measured at Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest