Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
220 FXUS62 KKEY 091908 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 308 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Today has been a rather pleasant surprise, though we`re not out of the woods yet for convection. A reverse cloud line across the Middle and Upper Keys, briefly ignited, but otherwise, it is eerily quiet out there this afternoon. Visible satellite shows that the first rounds of reverse cloud lines have dissipated but additional cloud lines are still possible given that we have a couple hours left of heating. Meanwhile, convection is firing up along the north coast of Cuba and we will have to see if it surges northward. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s with dew points holding in the mid 70s. .FORECAST... Tried to make as little changes as possible to the going forecast given that there is still uncertainties in the forecast beyond day 3 (Tuesday). We will have to watch for convection off of Cuba surging northward and reaching the island chain late this evening and overnight. Regardless if this makes it or not tonight, tropical moisture from the western Caribbean will begin lifting northward into the Yucatan Channel and extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Therefore the trend continues to show a wet pattern beginning Monday night and essentially lasting through the end of the work week. The low confidence comes with how certain features ultimately interact with one another which will also eventually affect timing as well. However, given the ample tropical moisture that will be in place, and a gradual growing confidence, WPC has upgraded our area to a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall from Tuesday through Thursday. We`re not expecting a constant rain but what rounds of rain come through could produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding. Otherwise, the biggest unknown will be winds. Very low confidence at this point as to what winds will do Tuesday and beyond. It seems like the GFS has a lot convective feedback that is tainting the wind field. With that being said, ECMWF seems a little on the low side. Have tried to maintain a middle ground approach but the wind forecast will likely change over the next 24 to 48 hours. Both residents and mariners and encouraged to check back often on the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The pattern will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida. This will result in light to gentle southerly breezes across the Keys coastal waters tonight through Monday. Freshening breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather may begin as early as Tuesday and will persist through Thursday night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both terminals through the TAF period. Some guidance is hinting at the risk for showers and potentially thunderstorms to impact the terminals sometime during the overnight hours which should approach from the south or form nearby, but the confidence is low for placement and timing. Therefore, kept VCSH out of the TAF for now. Near-surface winds will be mainly south at 5 to 11 knots, but, may occasionally become south- southeasterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 88 80 88 / 40 60 60 70 Marathon 81 89 80 88 / 40 60 50 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest