Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
819 FXUS62 KKEY 081442 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1042 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1028 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Mean-layer ridging stretches west through the Caribbean. A narrow mean-layer ridge in the Gulf of Mexico is west of a positively tilted long-wave trough axis. Water vapor imagery highlights very dry and stable air over the Gulf of Mexico, while the Western Caribbean features a wide axis of deep convection. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled rising heights at 300 and 200 mb, which places the Keys on the west side of the upper trough axis. The vertical profile features light south to southwest steering, moderate ML instability, and a fair amount of low-level inhibition. Recent visibile satellite imagery shows an expansion of low-level cumulus across the Straits as the inhibition erodes in the southerlies. The forecast calls for good rain/thunder chances through the afternoon as boundaries over the Gulf interact with the plume of warm air advection spreading north. The island cloud lines likely will initiate across the Gulf and Bayside waters, but upshear backbuilding like yesterday is possible. The forecast is on track and needs no adjustments. && .MARINE... Issued at 1028 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Weak high pressure will remain over the central North Atlantic, as a series of frontal boundaries stall off the Eastern Seaboard and over north Florida. This will result in light to gentle southerly breezes across the Keys coastal waters through Monday. Southeast to south breezes will likely increase to gentle to moderate from Monday night through midweek. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1028 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions are mostly expected at the terminals through the TAF period. Some guidance is showing the risk for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon continuing into this evening, though, timing and placement remains low to avg confidence. However, there is enough support to include VCSH in the TAFs. Also, GOES-16 Visible satellite imagery is showing a cumulus field building over the Straits and working their way towards the Island Chain. Any showers or storms this afternoon into this evening will be capable of producing gusty winds in and near convection as well as MVFR conditions for CIGs and VIS. Near-surface winds outside of showers will be generally south to southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, the daily record warm low temperature of 86 degrees was recorded in Marathon set back in 2019. This also ties for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in June and the all-time warmest low for the Marathon area. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. OF NOTE In 1966, Hurricane Alma moved north off of Cuba and intensified to a Category 3 hurricane and passed about 35 miles west of Key West. The Dry Tortugas measured sustained winds of 125 mph while Key West measured winds of 60 mph with gusts to 70 mph. Hurricane Alma was the only hurricane to affect the Keys during the month of June in the last hundred years. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 82 90 82 / 50 30 40 40 Marathon 89 83 90 83 / 40 30 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest