Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
167 FXUS62 KKEY 151408 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1008 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1005 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Near surface breezes strengthened into light southeasterlies in the early morning. Lingering outflow boundaries around Key West just before sunrise provided a source of lift for early morning rainfall as evidenced by light showers observed over EYW shortly after sunrise. The 12Z radiosonde measured a precipitable water right around the 75th percentile for the day. Environmental moisture remaining below the 90th percentile does not mean a reprieve from the muggy, Heat Advisory levels of heat. Satellite derived PWAT will remain near 2 inches throughout the day. The concern later in the afternoon is if a deep layer of dry air located over the northern Gulf of Mexico will provide a source of lift for showers and thunderstorms over the outer Gulf waters. Overall, the extremely bizarre September continues to round out the weekend. Today, breezes will remain light southwesterlies with multiple periods of variable conditions. Persistent southwesterlies indicates a reverse cloud line along the Lower Keys will be a forecast concern. However, the additional cloud cover suggests a slight reprieve to the extremely warm temperatures and a possible overnight low back into the, still very warm, lower 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1005 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Florida Keys. Ponding on the typically favored roadways will peak at the times of the morning higher high tide in the Lower and Middle Keys, with little tidal cycle relief in the Upper Keys. Other than these minor coastal flooding hazards, are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light, and at times, variable breezes will continue through Thursday across the Florida Keys coastal waters. An upper level trough will amplify and slowly slide southward towards the Florida Peninsula this. This will likely bring elevated rain and thunder chances back to the Keys, although confidence in the extended forecast is quite low. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 While VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals for the TAF period, moist low-levels coupled with light southwesterly flow will support possible island cloud line formation. In addition, residual boundaries from likely developing South Florida storms this afternoon may shoot southward, promoting additional vicinity showers. Have elected to include a window of VCSH in the TAFs for now, which will be amended as needed to include impacts to visbilities and ceilings. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 2023, the daily record high temperature of 94F was last recorded at Key West International Airport and Marathon International Airport. Temperatures records for Key West and Marathon date back to 1872 and 1950 respectively. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest