Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
443 FXUS62 KKEY 120247 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1047 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1008 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Water vapor imagery highlights a long wave trough over the Eastern US and southern stream short wave pressing through Texas. A broad leaf of diffluent upper level flow extends southwest from offshore the Atlantic Bight across Florida to western Cuba. The last frames of IR/VIS satellite imagery noted a lengthy trough axis bisecting south-central Florida which extends to the Yucatan. CIMSS low- level vorticity analyses highlight this feature well. Along this trough, a potent MCV moved onshore near Tampa this evening. Much of the day the moisture convergence zone remained north of the Keys in the southeastern Gulf. Late this afternoon, a stealthy short wave of some sort pressed east through our western waters, sparking mergers and upscale growth. These cells merged with the moist conveyer streaking north across west-central Cuba. The coastal waters near and west of Key West including the Marquesas and Dry Tortugas got hammered by strong thundery squalls as all these ingredients merged. The WFO RSOIS sensor measured a 51 mph gust as a lower caliber squall pressed north through Key West, we can only wonder what the gusts were near Rebecca Shoal during our most intense cell of the evening. There remains evidence of the stealthy short wave at this hour, with mesoscale subsidence invading from the northwest (see near the Dry Tortugas) and flourishing convection north of the Cay Sal Bank. The Cay Sal storms are right underneath potent diffluence aloft so the storm top divergence is unimpeded. Over the next several hours, the stratiform rains should wane across the island chain as the subsidence spreads east. The moist conveyer remains intact, and coupled with the low-level ridging making a comeback, we should see the convergence zone setup camp once again in the southeastern Gulf. SFC winds are diminished right now, but will return to the 15 to 20 knot range for most areas. The 80% rain/thunder chances remain a safe bet. && .MARINE... Issued at 1008 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The pattern this week will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida. Although, the main weather maker will be a large cyclonic gyre centered over Central America. As such, moderate to fresh breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather featuring thundery squalls will persist tonight through Friday night. Rain and thunder chances will decrease gradually starting Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Occasional reductions in VIS to 5SM and lower CIGS based at 015-020 will persist at the EYW and MTH terminals for the next few hours. Southerly crosswind gust magnitudes of 15 to 20 knots remain possible throughout the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 88 80 87 / 80 70 60 70 Marathon 79 88 79 87 / 80 70 70 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest