Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
502 FXUS62 KKEY 111957 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 357 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The weather has remained active this afternoon with most of the activity still pinned across the northern waters and south Florida mainland. That being said, there were some thundery squalls that raced off of Cuba and moved northward across the Lower Keys. One such squall produced a 40 knot (46 mph) wind gust at the Sand Key C-MAN station. Here at our office on White St, we saw a max wind gust of 32 knots (37 mph) from the same squall. Although cloud cover has kept temperatures in the mid 80s, a moisture-rich southerly flow is pumping in dew points into the upper 70s to near 80 at times. Current radar shows more convection is racing north from Cuba and at the same time, activity across the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico is inching eastward towards the Dry Tortugas. A ridge axis stretches from the Yucatan Peninsula eastward across portions of the Great Antilles this afternoon but will gradually shift south overnight through Thursday. As it does, moisture rounding this ridge will become better aligned with the Florida Keys. As we have seen today, there is very little stopping precipitation from developing. The only limiting factor is organized lift which has been favoring areas to our north today. As mentioned the best moisture which lies to our north, will settle southward across the Keys through Thursday. This combined with a persistent trough to our west will keep rain chances high through the end of the week. By Friday, ridging will consolidate across the western Caribbean and begin lifting northward. This will eventually dislodge the tropical plume from our area, however, it will take until this weekend for rain chances to drop appreciably. No air mass changes expected and dew points will hold in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees at times, resulting in humid conditions, especially for this weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the western waters due to fresh southerly breezes. Thundery squalls continue to race north from Cuba and across our waters. The main activity lies across the outer Gulf waters but is showing signs of shifting south and east. The pattern this week will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida. Although, the main weather maker will be a large cyclonic gyre centered over Central America. As such, moderate to fresh breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather featuring thundery squalls will persist tonight through Friday night. Rain and thunder chances will decrease gradually starting Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Throughout the TAF period, shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to intermittently impact either terminal causing IFR conditions. For the time being VCTS and VCSH are included to represent nearby activity but TEMPOs will be included for direct impacts when necessary. Near surface winds will be southerly at 10 to 15 knots with gusts between 20 and 25 knots, but gusts in passing showers could near 35 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 88 80 87 / 80 70 60 70 Marathon 79 88 79 87 / 80 70 70 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for FLZ076>078. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ033>035-044-054-055-074-075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest