Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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215 FXUS64 KLCH 172129 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 429 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Potential Tropical Cyclone Number 1 is expected to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico and into eastern Mexico by Wednesday night. The system is expected to overall stay on sloppy and elongated side, and this will keep a rather large wind field and moisture on the north side of the system. Therefore, portions of the forecast area will have some impacts as far as heavy rainfall potential and coastal flooding, and for the coastal waters strong winds and hazardous seas. A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect for lower southeast Texas from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts, and also what may be more concerning will be the rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour that will quickly cause urban and street flooding. A Coastal Flood Warning will be in effect for Cameron Parish and Jefferson County with tides around 2 feet above astronomical predicted levels, with actual tide heights at high tide time between 2.0 and 3.0 feet MWWH, and these numbers indicate inundation levels right at the coast. A Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect for Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes with tides between 1 and 2 feet above astronomical predicted levels, with actual tide heights at high tide time between 1.5 and 2.0 feet MWWH, and these numbers indicate inundation levels right at the coast. A Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect for southern Calcasieu Parish and southern Orange County around Sabine and Calcasieu Lake with tides around 1 foot above astronomical predicted levels, with actual tide heights at high tide time between 1.0 and 1.5 feet MWWH, and these numbers indicate inundation levels right at the coast. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the coastal waters for easterly winds 20 to 30 knots with gusts to near 40 knots and seas from 7 to 14 feet. If PTC 1 becomes more compact and stronger near the center then we may see less impacts for the forecast area. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Initial moisture plume will move across for the remainder of the afternoon into this evening, and this will allow for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms that will produce brief tropical downpours and wind gusts around 35 mph. This activity will begin to decrease after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. On Tuesday, best deep tropical moisture plume around the large circulation of PTC 1 will move into lower southeast Texas and this area will have the higher rain chances along with higher rainfall rates. PWAT values will be in the 2.25 to 2.5 inch range along with MRH over 90 percent, so definitely tropical downpours. With the long fetch and duration of the easterly winds, Ekman spiral affect will help pile water on the coast allowing for high tides that may bring some flooding during high tide times late at night into the morning hours. Also, with water piling along the coast, this will probably hinder proper drainage from main riverstems that combined with the heavy rainfall will also increase the flash flood threat. On Wednesday, as the system moves further west, the heavy rain threat will also move further to the west. Should be enough moisture hanging around along with a weakness aloft to keep a good chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 At the start of the longterm period, high pressure is moving in aloft and surface ridge starts building over the sern US from the ern seaboard. A final hurrah of elevated PoPs are expected for at least some of the area on Thursday with tropical disturbance spinning out in sern Texas. Moisture plume still situated in south Louisiana consisting of PWATs in the 1.70 to 1.90 inches will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the daytime hours. This time yesterday, guidance brought a weak erly trof across the northern Gulf causing an increase in rain chances over the next weekend. Now, guidance has a stronger sfc ridge building in from the east into Friday, causing a downward trend in diurnally driven PoPs into Saturday. The brief period of lower PoPs makes some sense considering the relatively drier airmass moving in with the ridge. There remains the chance of a weak erly trof or low pressure center moving near Florida late in the weekend which would degrade the sfc high and allow PoPs to flood back in late Sunday and Monday. Forecaster confidence in this solution is low to medium and thus broad changes to this extent of the forecast are very possible. For now, the NBM`s PoPs for the weekend into Monday appear to capture the latest forecast trend well enough and were left as is. Temperatures rise steadily from Thursday to the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A very moist air mass is in place over the forecast area and expected redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Away from convection expect VFR conditions. Will keep VCTS at terminals until about 18/03z when activity should mainly diminish with loss of daytime heating, although will keep VCSH for all southern terminals throughout the night as with this airmass, likely to see plenty of nocturnal activity over the Gulf of Mexico that will try to move onshore. Expect showers and storms to get another early start on Tuesday and will prevailing showers with VCTS at all southern terminals starting at 18/12z. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 is expected to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico into eastern Mexico by Wednesday night. The system is expected to have a rather large wind field along with a tight gradient across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will provide moderate to strong and gusty east to southeast winds in the 20 to 30 knot sustained range with gusts up to 40 knots. This will also allow for wave heights to increase in the 7 to 14 foot range. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through mid week. As long as the system stays weak, deep moisture will be out from the north side of the system, keeping widespread showers and storms through mid week. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 85 71 90 / 30 50 20 30 LCH 74 85 75 89 / 50 80 50 70 LFT 76 86 76 91 / 50 70 30 60 BPT 76 86 75 88 / 40 80 70 70 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ073-074. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ241-252>254. TX...Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ615. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ616. Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for TXZ201-515-516-615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...07