913
FXUS64 KLCH 131125
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
625 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Very quiet weather ongoing across the region this morning. Some
patchy dense fog is presently being observed in the vicinity of
Houston, but this hasn`t really developed further east in any
appreciable capacity. Can`t rule out the possibility of some light
ground fog through the remainder of the early morning especially
across the few areas that saw rain yesterday, but this shouldn`t
amount to much and should be quick to dissipate after sunrise.

Otherwise, high pressure extending across most of the Northern
gulf coast and ridging aloft beginning to nudge into the area
will keep precip at bay and skies generally clear. Daytime mixing
should again pull some low 60s dewpoints down to the surface which
will drop afternoon RH values into the 35-45% range making the
lower 90s high temperatures feel a bit more bearable.

The ridge aloft will continue to build across the area both Friday
and Saturday maintaining dry conditions. The combination of
increasing subsidence and dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s
will drive afternoon highs into the mid 90s Friday afternoon and
upper 90s Saturday afternoon. However, the slightly below normal
dewpoints especially in the afternoon should keep apparent
temperatures below advisory criteria.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Isolated to numerous PoPs are on tap for the entire forecast period.
As a result, temperatures for the period will be held to or below
climatological normals. MaxTs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s
with both MinTs and dewpoints in the 70s.

The long term kicks off this weekend with a ridge of high pressure
aloft, centered over the Southeastern States. Over the forecast
period it will slowly move up the east coast. Yesterday morning NHC
highlighted an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche for
possible development over the long term period. As of 2AM EDT NHC
has increased this area to a 40% chance of development. Regardless
of development, the moisture from this system will bring with it a
chance for locally heavy rainfall and a threat of flooding.

Model guidance has improved slightly as to the evolution of the
system, with the broad area of low pressure expected to move west
northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico before moving inland
around the Tamaulipas / Veracruz area mid to late next week.

There is still some disagreement as to how far north the rich plume
of tropical moisture will move. While some models have backed down,
we will still be facing a multiday flooding threat over the early to
mid week period. PWATs along the coast on Sunday are in the 1.8 to 2
inch range which is in the 75th to 90th percentile range. Monday and
Tuesday, they are in the 2 to 2.3 inch range. Wednesday and
Thursday, they are in the 2 to 2.4 range.

Of course this will all depend on where the plume of tropical
moisture sets up and this is highly likely to change over the coming
days. As of now, there is a Marginal Risk (lvl 1 of 4) of excessive
rainfall on day 4 and 5 (Sunday & Monday). Sunday the risk area is
along coastal SETX / SWLA. Monday it encompass nearly three
quarters of the CWA. Keep in mind that the potential for greater and
or additional flood threats will exist over this period.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Broad high pressure extending across much of the Northern gulf
coast combined with a building ridge aloft will maintain mostly
clear skies and light Northeasterly winds through the taf period.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Light offshore flow will prevail through Friday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of a
stalled frontal boundary over the coastal waters early this
morning with chances diminishing through the day. No appreciable
precipitation is expected Friday or Saturday. Precipitation
chances increase significantly Sunday night through most of next
week as moisture from the Southern Gulf of Mexico advances
northward. Increasing onshore winds and seas can be expected
during this period, with Small Craft Advisories possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  64  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  92  70  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  93  71  96  76 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  93  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...66