188
FXUS64 KLCH 111135
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
635 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows our old frontal boundary now about
stalled near the I-10 corridor with high pressure centered over the
Great Lakes providing a light mainly nerly flow over much of the
forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows troffing in place over the
ern 1/3 of the country, with a shortwave/cutoff low dropping esewd
across the Red River Valley. Local 88Ds have shown a few
showers/storms mainly over the coastal waters tonight, although some
activity was noted earlier in the overnight over Cameron Parish.
Otherwise, sfc obs/satellite imagery indicate a partly cloudy and
slightly warm night ongoing.

With the sfc boundary progged to continue inching swd toward the
coast through today, and combined with some influence from the
approaching shortwave, daytime heating, resultant mesoscale
boundaries and good moisture (forecast soundings indicating mean
RH values to 70 percent and PWAT values to 1.9 inches), expect
another round of scattered showers/storms across mainly the srn
1/2 of the area by the afternoon. POPs taper down quickly behind
the front with no precip being carried across portions of cntl LA.
Rainfall totals for today are expected to be on the light side
with amounts generally running 1/4 to 1/2 inch in most areas
within the higher rain chances. This activity will linger past
sunset before dissipating with loss of heating.

Best rain chances for Wednesday initially shift to the coastal
waters closer to the boundary before it begins meandering its way
back onshore during the afternoon hours.

We should see a return to dry conditions for Thursday as ridging
aloft begins building back over the region. We could see perhaps a
shower/storm or two over our far sern zones during the afternoon
where capping is progged to be least and moisture best.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The week will end hot and dry across the region as dry air aloft
continues to advect around the eastern periphery of a sprawling
upper level ridge. This ridge will build across the northern gulf
Friday and Saturday suppressing afternoon convection and keeping
skies mostly clear. This, combined with dewpoints falling into the
mid to upper 60s due to afternoon mixing, will allow highs to climb
into the mid 90s both Friday and Saturday. The lower dewpoints will
keep apparent temperatures below advisory criteria, but it will
still feel quite hot.

The ridge slides into the Southeastern U.S. by Sunday where the
southerly flow aloft will then guide a surge of tropical moisture
across the Gulf of Mexico. There remains a fairly large spread
between ensemble members regarding where this stream of moisture
will set up as well as it`s diameter, but probabilities are
increasing for a heavy rain/potential flash flood event somewhere
across the gulf coast Sunday through the middle of next week. Based
on the most recent ensembles and NBM guidance, increased PoPs across
the region both Sunday and Monday. Even without the max surge of
moisture, the departure of the ridge justifies at least scattered
PoPs for diurnally driven afternoon convection. Despite the heavy
rain threat, there continues to be no consistent signal of organized
tropical development with this wave.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

With this issuance, upgraded the chances for convection for the
srn terminals from VCTS to PROB30 as convective coverage appears
to favor the stronger wording. Otherwise, no real changes to
previous TAF thinking with VFR conditions and mainly light winds
prevailing through the period.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Once again this morning, no headlines are expected on the CWF
during the forecast period as flow remains rather light (for now).

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  67  89  64 /  10   0  10   0
LCH  91  72  90  71 /  50  20  30  20
LFT  92  73  92  71 /  50  20  30  20
BPT  92  73  91  72 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...25