658
FXUS64 KLCH 102055
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
355 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A smattering of showers and thunderstorms developed today under
weakness aloft and surface boundary moving into the region.
Thankfully rain-cooled air mass kept temperatures generally in
check; most areas have topped out in the upper 80s to around 90
with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100F.

The frontal boundary slides south tonight, ushering in slightly
drier air by tomorrow. This should assist with keeping temps
around 90F tomorrow and upper 80s to around 90 on Wednesday. The
front will be the focus of shower and thunderstorm development
each afternoon in the short term period. However, high pressure
ridges down into the region late Tuesday into Wednesday and will
start suppressing convection more and more each day. PoPs Tuesday
afternoon will range 30 to 50 percent and only 20 to 30 Wednesday.

The drying trend will also impact temperatures and heat indices.
Heat indices will range within the 90s each day: mid to upper 90s
Tuesday and low to mid 90s Wednesday.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Strong high pressure shifts east into the eastern third of the
country by late next week. As a result, daytime highs will peak
Friday/Saturday in the middle 90s with increasing onshore flow by
the weekend.

As the weekend and early next week approaches, moisture could round
the western periphery of the high pressure and move into the
central GoM. This would bring widespread showers/storms to the
region with the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding.

Uncertainty remains high from run to run, but overall ensemble
forecasts continue to show higher probabilities of heavier rain.

In the interest of rumor suppression, it continues to be worth
mentioning that there has been no consistent guidance indicating
tropical cyclone development at this time. That said, the wave will
have the potential to become a flash flood threat across parts of
the gulf coast by next weekend and early next week.

78

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Weakness aloft has resulted in area showers and isolated
thunderstorms to form across Gulf terminals with ceilings ranging
from 2500 to 5000 feet. Expect this trend to continue with all
terminals expecting at least vicinity thunderstorms through the
early evening.

With growing updrafts, tropical funnels will be possible through
20z or so, and when updrafts come crashing down, variable winds
and heavy rain will be possible.

After sundown, expect convective activity to diminish with light
variable winds and generally VFR ceilings. Some guidance is
hinting at light ground fog again overnight, but confidence is
low. For now, mentions of this were not included in TAFs.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A weak surface frontal boundary will move down into coastal waters
resulting in light variable winds and increased rain chances.
Expect much of the same Tuesday and Wednesday with diurnal showers
and thunderstorms and variable winds. The front washes out towards
the end of the work week and a return to dry conditions and
southerly flow due to high pressure developing aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  89  66  89 /  10  10   0  10
LCH  74  90  71  89 /  20  40  10  30
LFT  74  92  72  92 /  20  40  10  30
BPT  74  92  73  91 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...11