Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
183 FXUS64 KLCH 081145 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 645 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Early morning sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary draped across the forecast area at this time, while high pressure lies behind it centered over the Tennessee Valley. Water vapor imagery shows the area under the influence of ridging extending from cntl TX ewd to sern LA. Sfc obs/satellite imagery indicate clear skies in place over the region while temperatures remain just slightly above normal (generally mid/upper 70s). Regional 88Ds are PPINE. The early portion of the forecast remains dry thanks to the ridging aloft, progged to drift ewd to a position generally overhead, and the passing sfc boundary, expected to drift swd to the coast before washing out later today. This boundary will offer little in the way of a reprieve from our warmer than normal temperatures with highs today forecast to run in the lower/mid 90s (cooler near the immediate coast). Combined with dewpoints in the 70s, apparent temps are expected to top out just inside triple digits for most of the area today. As we move into Sunday, the ridging aloft is progged to get nudged swd while weakening in response to a series of shortwaves rounding a cutoff low over ern Canada passing to our north. Meanwhile, srly low-level flow will maintain very moist/steamy conditions across the area...the increasing low-level moisture mainly just resulting in a little better cloud cover. With a decaying cap per forecast soundings, perhaps a little lift from the passing disturbance and a likely afternoon sea breeze, suppose a shower or two can`t be totally ruled out late in the day...for now, keeping rain chances below the criteria for their inclusion. Temperatures are expected to be a degree or two lower than today. Rain chances return to the area in earnest on Monday as troffing aloft further removes the influence of the ridge, while also helping usher in another sfc boundary. Expect scattered showers/storms to linger into the evening hours before dissipating with loss of heating. 25 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A weak frontal boundary is progged to dig into the region before stalling Tuesday. No appreciable change in airmass is anticipated behind the fropa even if it does actually make it offshore which isn`t a foregone conclusion. What the boundary will do is deepen the moisture profile allowing for scattered afternoon convection Tuesday afternoon. As the front washes out Wednesday, an upper trof slowly advancing Southeast out of the southern plains will cut off before drifting to the coast Thursday. The low will favor daily scattered afternoon convection through the end of the week, but available mid and upper level moisture does appear to limit coverage. The highest PoPs will be across South Central Louisiana where deeper moisture profiles will exist. There are considerable differences with regards to the evolution of this cut off low, but the general signal is that it will be absorbed by a weak tropical disturbance moving into the eastern gulf late in the week. How this interaction occurs and the resulting feature will have a large impact on the forecast in the day 7-9 timeframe, but a wetter pattern is looking increasingly likely into next weekend. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the extended with little day to day variability. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Consistent dewpoints in low to mid 70s will produce maximum heat indices around 100 each afternoon. Jones && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Once the fog around KBPT lifts next hour or so, should see VFR conditions prevail through the period across the entire area as forecast soundings are rather dry in the lower/boundary layers. Light variable flow this morning should become srly as the passing boundary washes out...then become light/variable again this evening. 25 && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A light/variable flow is expected on the area waters today with the sfc boundary drifting nearby. Thereafter, an onshore flow is expected to resume by tonight, lingering into early next week when a frontal passage is forecast...as of now, not seeing any headlines on the CWF anywhere during the forecast period. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 94 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 92 74 90 73 / 0 0 10 10 LFT 94 75 93 75 / 0 0 10 0 BPT 93 74 92 74 / 0 0 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...25