Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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059 FXUS64 KLCH 041550 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1050 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Updated the grids/zones to account for today`s MCS du jour tracking ssewd from nern TX/nwrn LA. Luckily radar/satellite trends have been showing this feature on a gradual decaying trend so keeping fingers crossed that any severe threat will be minimal. Elsewhere, just minor tweaks were made to the forecast. Update already out. 25 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 450 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Active weather continues to dominate the majority of the short term with the long range still remaining unsettled and wet. Today, another round of scattered storms and showers will spread across the northern tier counties and parishes before developing and spreading further south. There does lie a degree of uncertainty of whether or not outflows from the current MCS in the southern plains will maintain continued propagations SSE across central LA. Earlier forecast guidance suggested this feature would maintain toward the lower Acadiana area, however, some recent discrepancies do bring into question if low level stability may prevent a wider spread of progression. Basis the latest satellite analysis and convective behavior through the overnight hours in Oklahoma, the system is best utilizing surface instability, albeit with weaker inversion layers aloft. Thus, confidence remains developing storms from the north into our CWA, however, the coverage and duration may continue to adjust through the morning hours. This line of thinking currently supports the latest guidance from the SPC and WPC illustrating a marginal building into a slight risk toward the Northern portion of the CWA for severe weather and excessive rainfall respectively. As a large northern stream shortwave continues to shift east and stall north of the Great Lakes region, a portion of the upper level flow becomes cutoff over the Mississippi Valley. A localized region of divergence aloft supports the development of another MCS type features descending SE from the southern Plains with the strongest signals for POPs generally east of TX. However, confidence many of the CAM suites are low given their handling on the pattern during the past couple days. That said, confidence does remain in this upper level feature kicking off more thunderstorm development Wednesday. While no elevated severe threat has been analyzed yet, severe thunderstorms are not out of the question, in addition to the marginal risk of excess rainfall- at this time. Upon the cutoff upper-level portion of the shortwave shifting east over the FL Peninsula into Thursday, signals for some form of organized precipitation drop as broad ridging begins to warm the lower troposphere inhibiting chances for showers/storms. Skies will also have less cloud cover allowing temperatures to further warm into the lower 90s, perhaps brief mid 90s for portions of SETX. Kowalski/30 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 450 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 As mentioned, the long range is rather unsettled with deterministic approaches showing a frontal boundary bowing south across the southern Plains Friday. However, from blended approach, the relative dry signal in the forecast trends into weekend with very warm temperatures. That is not the case with a blended approach, however, even this approach acknowledges some notable departures in the 10th and 90th percentiles. Thus, chance of storms has been kept in the forecast to reflect confidence in the precipitation not completely departing from the map. A secondary frontal boundary develops later in the weekend associated with the robust upper level low centered of Michigan by Monday, indicating a few rounds of precipitation may continue into early next week. Kowalski/30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A mix of MVFR/VFR sky conditions noted at the southern terminals this morning, with mainly VFR at AEX. Conditions should trend to prevailing VFR across the area by midmorning. One small cluster of storms is noted sliding up the TX coast this morning, and if it holds together, could bring a brief shower or storm to BPT in the next couple of hours. Otherwise, another MCS is progressing across the Arklatex this morning, and should be moving into the area by early this afternoon. This complex will bring the best potential for storms with gusty winds to AEX, but could maintain enough organization to reach LFT/ARA and possibly LCH by late afternoon into this evening. Showers and storms should end during the evening, with MVFR cigs developing by late evening into overnight. Outside of storms, southerly winds are expected to strengthen to near 15 KT with gusts as high as 25 KT at times. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 450 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Enhanced Southerlies will continue to remain over wrn/cntl coastal waters as they are progged to remain enhanced through this evening thanks to a tightening gradient courtesy of low pressure moving into the Srn Plains. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 89 72 89 71 / 60 10 40 30 LCH 87 77 89 76 / 40 10 20 10 LFT 90 77 91 76 / 50 30 20 10 BPT 89 77 91 76 / 20 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...24