647
FXUS64 KLCH 070941
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
441 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a large ridge across the
SW states into W TX, with an embedded disturbance over the TX
panhandle. Northerly flow on the periphery of the ridge was
bringing much drier air over the region. Recent LAPS Layer PW
analysis and GOES TPW shows precipitable water down to 1.2-1.3
inches across the area early this morning (near the 25th
percentile per SPC climatology).

Surface analysis shows a weak ridge extending southward over the
area. This was providing a light northerly flow, although
temperatures remain relatively warm and humid (pretty much
expected for early June), with temperatures in the middle 70s to
near 80 and dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s.

The weather pattern is finally shifting away from the persistent
rounds of showers and storms over the last couple of weeks to a
much warmer and drier one for the next few days, with highs
into the lower to middle 90s. At this time, heat advisories are
not expected, but heat index values could climb to near 100 this
afternoon and between 100 and 105 degrees Saturday and Sunday.
Beyond this weekend, rain chances are expected to return by early
next week as another disturbance and surface front move into the
region.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The ridge aloft will build further east across TX today, shifting
toward the northern Gulf through the weekend, with its position more
or less directly overhead on Saturday. At the surface, high
pressure to the north of the area will drift toward the southeast
states, with winds becoming southerly on Saturday.

Drier air and subsidence associated with the ridge aloft will
suppress rain chances while allowing for considerable warming
during today and Saturday. A few locations in SE TX could reach
the upper 90s each afternoon. Sufficient mixing should keep
dewpoints from becoming too oppressive, and thus limit heat index
values to sub-advisory criteria. That said, those sensitive or
unaccustomed to the heat should use caution during outdoor
activities and drink plenty of water. By Sunday, the core of the
ridge will shift further southeast. Slightly above normal
temperatures are again expected, but not quite as hot as the
previous days. A gradual increase in moisture will occur, and a
few diurnally forced showers or storms will be possible mainly
across the Acadiana region.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Long term guidance solutions begin to vary in their handling of a
series of northern stream shortwaves near the US/Canadian border
early in the week, lending lower than average confidence to this
portion of the forecast. A general consensus suggests that energy
will dig across the northern US or Great Lakes region, helping to
weaken the ridge over the area. The GFS and its ensembles have
trended toward a more progressive pattern, with a stronger
shortwave digging across the central US that could propel a front
through the region, but this solution appears to be an outlier
compared with other global models/ensembles.

The NBM remains consistent with its previous runs and better
aligned with the non-GFS solutions, especially beyond Monday. At
this time, the ridge is expected to weaken considerably by Monday,
allowing a series of weak disturbances to affect the region early
next week. The development of shortwaves along the Canadian border
will help push another cold front southward into the area on
Monday, potentially stalling near the coast. Increasing moisture
and forcing along the boundary should bring at least some
scattered PoPs to the region on Monday. The increase in clouds and
showers will keep temperatures in check with temperatures likely
only reaching the upper 80s to around 90.

Beyond Monday, non-GFS solutions suggest the weak boundary will
meander near the coast. Aloft, ridging will become re-established
west of the area. Another shortwave is expected to traverse the
northeast edge of the ridge, moving toward the lower MS Valley by
Wednesday into Thursday. This should provide enough support for
scattered showers and storms each afternoon, but overall coverage
will likely be dictated by the position of both the surface
boundary and the trough aloft.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

FEW/SCT low clouds around 035/050 ft this afternoon with light
winds. Skies clear overnight with generally SKC tomorrow. Light
winds will continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Light offshore winds this morning will veer around to an onshore
direction tonight as surface high pressure north of the region
shifts toward the southeastern US. A light to occasionally
moderate onshore flow will then persist into early next week,
becoming somewhat variable as a weak front stalls near the coast.
At this time, no headlines are anticipated for the coastal waters
zones. Dry weather is expected to prevail through the weekend,
with rain chances increasing early next week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  68  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  93  73  92  75 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  95  73  95  75 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  95  74  93  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...05