197
FXUS64 KLCH 061856
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
156 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The weak boundary will continue to slowly drift southeast toward
the coast today. Deeper moisture poised across the Acadiana
region should be sufficient to produce some scattered showers and
storms this morning into early this afternoon, especially as
heating provides additional instability. Despite this "front",
temperatures will not be any cooler. In fact, highs are expected
to reach the lower to middle 90s this afternoon, with the highest
temperatures expected across SE TX where drier air and less cloud
cover will promote better surface heating.

By Friday into Saturday, the western ridge will build further east
across TX, and begin to influence the local weather pattern by
suppressing rain chances and allowing daytime temperatures to
climb into the lower to middle 90s each afternoon. A few locations
in SE TX could reach the upper 90s. Sufficient mixing should keep
dewpoints from becoming too oppressive, and thus limit heat index
values to sub-advisory criteria. That said, individuals should
use caution during outdoor activities and drink plenty of water.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The dry and hot pattern will continue into Sunday as the ridge
aloft builds east and southeast over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Daytime highs are again expected to reach the lower to middle 90s.

The ridge will begin to flatten late Sunday and eventually break
by early next week as a shortwave trough digs over the eastern
US. This system will usher another weak front into the region on
Monday. Moisture pooling in advance of the system will raise PWATs
back to around 2 inches, which combined with instability and low
level forcing, will help generate scattered showers and storms
across the area during the day Monday. The weak front will push
offshore, with weak surface ridging developing across the region
through the middle of the week. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will
become re-established west of the area, allowing a shortwave
trough to slide southeast over the area, and this should result in
at least some widely scattered to scattered showers and storms
each day. With increasing cloud and shower coverage, daytime
temperatures will lower back into the upper 80s to lower 90s

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

FEW/SCT low clouds around 035/050 ft this afternoon with light
winds. Skies clear overnight with generally SKC tomorrow. Light
winds will continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Light west to southwest flow this morning will trend more offshore
through the morning into afternoon as a weak frontal boundary sags
south over the coastal waters. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
will be possible along the boundary today, mainly over the waters
east of the Cameron.

Drier conditions and a light generally offshore flow will then
persist into Friday, with onshore flow resuming over the weekend
as high pressure moves east of the area. Another front will move
southward over the coastal waters by early next week, bringing the
next chance for rain and another period of light variable to
offshore flow.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  93  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  72  94  73  93 /   0  10   0   0
LFT  74  96  74  95 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  73  96  74  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...14