Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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723 FXUS64 KLIX 162016 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 316 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A broad upper level low pressure system centered over the Deep South will continue to influence the forecast on Tuesday. This upper level feature will provide just enough forcing to tap into the seasonal PWATS of around 1.8 inches and moderate instability to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during peak heating hours. The convective activity will quickly wane after sunset tomorrow, and expect to see dry conditions in place by the late evening hours. By Wednesday, increasing negative vorticity advection and subsidence will push PWATS significantly lower and reduce the convective risk to 20 percent or less. Even that 20 percent will be a push given the strength of the ridge axis building in from the west. Temperatures will be near to slightly warmer than average each day with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s each night beneath largely clear skies and light winds. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Strong deep layer ridging will dominate the region throughout the entirety of the long term period. This deep layer subsidence will keep skies mostly clear and keep any rain chances at bay. Temperatures will see a larger diurnal range as dewpoints fall into the mid to upper 60s. Overall, the model spread is small in the long term period, so have opted to stick with deterministic values for temperatures. This results in highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s each day. The high temperatures are a few degrees above average, but extreme heat will not be a concern. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at nearly all of the terminals through the forecast period as a relatively dry airmass remains in place. There will be a low risk of a shower or thunderstorm impacting a terminal between 18z and 00z today, but the risk is too low to include in the forecast. At MCB, fog and low stratus probabilities remain decent given the light boundary layer flow and saturated soils. Despite the limited fog and stratus development observed this morning, have opted to include IFR stratus and MVFR fog from 10z to 14z tomorrow. Otherwise, MCB can also expect to see continued VFR conditions. PG && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A broad area of high pressure will become more firmly established across the coastal waters through the duration of the week and into the weekend. The end result will be very light gradient flow of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet through the entire forecast period. Overall, maritime activity will not be impacted by any significant weather over the next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 85 68 87 / 10 40 10 10 BTR 72 87 72 88 / 10 40 10 20 ASD 71 85 70 87 / 20 40 20 20 MSY 74 85 74 86 / 20 40 20 20 GPT 72 83 72 85 / 20 30 20 10 PQL 71 84 71 86 / 30 40 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...PG MARINE...PG