333
FXUS65 KLKN 180853
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
153 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...The second of two low pressure systems will impact the
Silver State over the next 48 hours. A low pressure center will
move down the west coast into northern California Wednesday into
Thursday. Accumulating rainfall from this second storm will be
less widespread and mainly in western portions of the region.
Quarter to half inch rain accumulations are possible in
northwestern Nye, Lander, and Eureka counties Wednesday morning.
Shower and storm chances will increase into northern Nevada
Wednesday afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. Thursday will be
somewhat drier in central and east central Nevada though chances
for shower and thunderstorm activity exist over northern areas of
the state. Friday morning the low passes to the south ahead of a
quieter weekend ahead.


&&

.SHORT TERM...The second low pressure system of the week meanders
into the SW CONUS on Wednesday. By 12z Wednesday morning the low
pressure center resides to the west over northern California with
a jet streak in the downstream flow of the trough over southern
Nevada. The low will continue its trek south into central
California over the course of Wednesday keeping southerly flow in
the eastern flank of the trough over the region. Moisture over
western Nevada will combine with some instability in the warm
sector of the system to produce QPF probabilities in the range of
0.25-50 inches of rainfall over northwestern Nye, Lander, and
Eureka counties Wednesday morning. Despite the southern movement
of the low, instability (40-280 J/kg of CAPE) and moisture
(0.6-0.75 inches of PWAT) will spread further north into central
and northern Nevada providing those areas with chances for scatter
showers and isolated convection Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Under mostly cloudy skies Wednesday afternoon highs will struggle
into upper 60s.

Best chances of precipitation and convection on Thursday are
found over northern Nevada where some moisture availability and a
few hundred J/kg of CAPE still exists. Thursday evening and into
Friday the low will make its way into southern Nevada placing east
southeast flow over the area raising Thursday afternoon
temperatures into the 70s for the area. Early Friday morning dry
convection is possible over White Pine and northeastern Nye
counties where better instability (200-400 CAPE,
-2 LI) in close proximity to the low over the CA/NV southwest
 border is found. PWAT values however struggle to reach 0.6
 inches hence the dry nature of convective activity at that time.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday.

A low pressure trough and cold front will move through our area
Thursday and Friday, exiting the region by Friday afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms accompanied by breezy conditions are
expected. Storm total amounts will range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches
of rain in central and southwest NV through Friday. As the trough
exits the region, drier conditions and a light northwesterly to
westerly flow pattern returns and will remain in place into early
next week. Highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s, with lows
in the mid 30s to lower 40s.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today. An
upper level low digging down along the CA coastline results in
mostly cloudy skies across northern and central NV today.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected mainly
south of KWMC KBAM and KEKO, and to the north of KTPH and KELY.
Any showers that may develop at one of these terminals today will
be light, likely less than 0.05".


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Next weather system begins to impact the forecast
area this morning as isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms move into fire weather zones 424 and 427 from the
west. Activity spreads into central and northern Nevada thru the
day and will ease overnight. Uptick in activity Thursday with
showers and thunderstorms easing again Thursday night before
increasing Friday and subsequently exiting Nevada to the east.
Activity will be present across all zones, though the best
opportunity for wetting rains will be in and near zones 424 and
427. Occasional breezes will also be present with valley gusts
generally around 20 mph. Cool temperatures will also continue.
Fairer weather expected for the weekend with temperatures warming
to seasonable.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/EB/96/92