237
FXUS66 KLOX 300057
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
557 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...29/140 PM.

A slight warming trend is expected through Friday as weak high
pressure sets up over the region. Most of the warming will be
inland as onshore flow will keep it cooler near the coast. Some
breezy northerly winds are expected in the Grapevine area tonight.
Cooler temperatures with a deeper marine layer are expected over
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...29/137 PM.

A slight warming trend is expected tomorrow and Friday as the
trough to the north weakens and higher pressure builds in from the
southwest. Most of the warming will be inland as strong onshore
flow will maintain a cool sea breeze across coast and most valley
areas. The Antelope Valley will climb to the mid 90s and interior
SLO County will warm up to near 90. Some lowering of the marine
layer is expected but likely still getting into some of the lower
coastal valleys south of Pt Conception. Some gusty northerly winds
are expected tonight through the I5 corridor with some gusts to
around 45 mph possible.

Troughing will return over the weekend for cooler temperatures and
likely persistent marine layer that will be slow to clear.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...29/206 PM.

Following the trough passage later this weekend, weak high
pressure will return early next week for a minor warming trend,
mainly inland. Coastal areas will still be dealing with plenty of
marine layer stratus that may or may not clear completely,
especially near the coast.

The upper pattern becomes interesting the latter half of next
week as a long wave ridge sets up along the West Coast. However,
at the same time a weak upper low undercuts the ridge Wednesday
just off the Baja coast. Strong ridging across far interior
California and the Great Basin through AZ will likely bring
significant warming there and some of this warming will sneak into
the Antelope Valley and far interior SLO county with highs in the
mid 90s to near 100 beginning Wednesday. However, closer to the
coast, there will still be a moderate to strong onshore flow each
afternoon, pulling in cool ocean air (SST`s still in the high 50s
to low 60s) that will keep temperatures from climbing too much
above normal. And many beach areas will likely stay cloudy through
much of the afternoon with highs only in the mid to high 60s.
Warmer coastal valleys should get to 90 or slightly higher
starting Wednesday and lasting through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0056Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 4100 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs. Moderate confidence in Central
Coast TAFs. Low to moderate confidence in all other TAFs (sites
south of Point Conception). Flight cat changes could be off by +/-
3 hours. There is a 30% chance of IFR- LIFR cigs at KSMX from
10Z-16Z Thu. Once arrived, there is a chance that CIGs do not
clear through the period for KSBA (30%), KOXR and KCMA(40%), and KSMO,
KLGB, and KLAX (20%). There is a 20% chance of LIFR conds at KOXR
and KCMA. For KBUR and KVNY, there is a 10% chance of no cigs
developing tonight, and a 20% chance of LIFR conds from 10Z-15Z
Thu.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes could be off
by +/- 3 hours. Once arrived, there is a 20% chance of CIGs not
clearing through the period. There is a 20% chance of an east
wind component of 7-8 kt from 10Z-16Z Thu.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10% chance of no
cigs developing tonight, and a 20% chance of BKN004 cigs and vsby
of around 2SM from 10Z-15Z Thu.

&&

.MARINE...29/152 PM.

Moderate confidence in forecast.

Across the outer waters, winds are currently approaching gale
force, and these winds will last into tonight. There is a 20%
chance that winds this evening will mostly remain high end Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) level. SCA level winds/seas are likely to
last for the outer waters (70-80% chance) into Thursday night.
Below SCA level conditions are expected late Thursday night and
Friday, though seas may be close. SCA level conditions are likely
much of the time (60-70% chance) Friday night through Monday.

Across the inner waters North of Point Sal, SCA winds are
expected to persist into this evening, and are likely to return (70%
chance) Thursday afternoon/evening. SCA conditions are not
expected late Thursday evening through Saturday morning. There is
50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoons/evenings
Saturday through Sunday.

Across the inner waters South of Pt. Sal, SCA winds are likely
(70% chance) for western portions of the SBA Channel this
afternoon/evening, and there is a 30-40% chance Saturday and
Sunday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...DB/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox