Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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510 FXUS64 KLUB 081104 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 604 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The upper high has won the battle with tonight`s convection with storm outflow failing to develop/sustain convection as it moves into our northern zones. Convection that has developed behind outflow across the Texas Panhandle has decayed to light showers. Today and tonight will be nearly a wash, rinse, and repeat of yesterday. The main difference is the center of the upper high will settle over the GOMEX by this afternoon. Another upper shortwave is progged to push across the Central Plains by the afternoon with convection developing along a weak surface boundary across Colorado/Kansas. Convection is expected to push southward following storm outflow with storms possibly making it to our northern zones. Storms should have another LLJ to help sustain themselves, and there should be less subsidence aloft to kill convection and prevent further development. The one continued problem for sustaining convection is the lack of steering flow aloft which makes convection rely on the outflow boundary for forward propagation. This will limit the southward extent of convection. Despite the upper high being further southeast, highs today will still be near 100 degrees F this afternoon as thicknesses have little change. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Our pattern turns more unsettled beginning late Sunday and extends into early next week until a sprawling upper ridge resumes its control of the region. Sunday begins with a cold front drifting south across the TX Panhandle underneath a NW-SE ridge. The front is likely to stall and bisect the CWA during the day as it encounters deep mixing all the while post-frontal pressure rises decay. The net result will be widespread, moist easterly upslope flow and cooler temps, although convective prospects look more iffy during the afternoon as frontal convergence diminishes. Farther west in E-SE New Mexico, low-level forcing looks best near a triple point with ample upslope forcing. PoPs were groomed to reflect storms developing in eastern NM during the afternoon and spreading slowly east by the evening and overnight under weak westerly steering flow. Models agree in convection thriving and growing upscale into an MCS by Sunday evening as it encounters a zonal theta-e axis with rich PWATs running 150-180 percent of normal. Add to this slow storm motions and the stage is becoming set for a potentially widespread heavy rainfall event. Additional precip chances for Monday are not as clear as the region will likely start with a cool/stable mesohigh in the wake of the MCS and residual cloud debris that will all serve to keep highs below normal. Aloft meanwhile, the upper ridge will have eroded and opened the door to an upper low (currently near Baja California) to draw closer from northern New Mexico in NW flow. Improved flow aloft may bolster the threat for organized severe storms provided enough heating and lift are realized. As this low crawls across the TX Panhandle on Tuesday, one final round of storms is in the offing for parts of the region before strong height rises deliver hot and dry conditions by mid/late week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail. There is a slight chance for convection to affect PVW, CDS, and possibly LBB between 00Z and 09Z tonight. Storms that affect terminals could produce winds up to 50 knots, heavy rainfall, and temporary IFR conditions. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...51