638
FXUS64 KLUB 071952
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
252 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Current water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge and
associated high pressure system over portions of West Texas this
afternoon. Minor perturbations within the flow in addition to
residual moisture have allowed streamer showers and thunderstorms
to continue through the late morning and early afternoon across the
far southern Texas Panhandle. Otherwise, the short term forecast
looks to remain hot and dry as the center of the upper level ridge
moves over the South Plains region early this weekend. At the
surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected to continue and influence
southwest surface winds across the forecast area. As the pressure
gradient tightens we can expect winds to become breezy across the
region through Saturday around 10 to 20 mph, with the strongest
winds across the Rolling Plains. This southwest flow in addition to
increased thickness values and relatively clear skies will work to
boost temperatures in the upper 90s and triple digits. Precipitation
chances begin to increase as we head into the evening and overnight
hours on Saturday as the center of the upper level ridge shifts
eastward and disturbances in the flow aloft prevail. Forcing for
ascent looks to remain farther north across the TX/OK Panhandles,
therefore NBM silent PoPs have been maintained for early Saturday
evening. To read more about late Saturday evening into overnight
precipitation chances refer to the long term discussion down
below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Adequate moisture and a 500mb shortwave embedded in zonal flow aloft
will provide a slight chance for precipitation Saturday evening and
overnight across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northern
South Plains. Weak flow aloft is expected to yield slower moving
thunderstorms that should reach the CWA by the overnight hours if
they can remain intact. Inverted-v soundings indicate a threat for
damaging winds with these storms.

On Sunday, a 500mb shortwave located over Baja California will eject
towards the area as a weak front stalls over the far southern Texas
Panhandle. Easterly to southeasterly surface flow is expected to
maintain dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s throughout the day.
Upslope flow should help initiate convection on the high terrain of
New Mexico during the afternoon and early evening hours. Into the
overnight hours Sunday, westerly flow aloft behind the shortwave
should push convection into the area, becoming linear over time.
PWAT values above the 90th percentile present a risk for heavy rain
and flooding with these storms.

Monday`s environment relies heavily on the outcome of convection on
Sunday. However, if rain moves east of the forecast area and clouds
clear early on, more favorable upper-level dynamics will provide
support for storms to propagate to the southeast across the South
and Rolling Plains Monday night. Precipitation chances decrease into
midweek as a ridge builds over New Mexico, which should keep the
area warmer and drier overall.

/Fenske

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. A few
VCSH/TS will continue to threaten KPVW for the next hour or so.
Otherwise, expect gusty south to southwest winds to prevail
through the afternoon and evening before diminishing slighlty
after sunset.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....11/Fenske
AVIATION...12