581
FXUS64 KLUB 090517
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1217 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Current satellite midlevel water vapor imagery shows a plume of
moisture across eastern New Mexico and West Texas wrapping around
the back side of the upper ridge spinning over the GoM. Temperatures
are warming this afternoon into the 90s with downsloping southerly
surface winds. However, high clouds from the moisture aloft are
keeping temperatures from breaching triple digits in several
locations. The upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints are mixing eastward
with lower dewpoints in the lower 50s slowly filling in from the
west. Looking at visible satellite, starting to see some deepening
cumulus clouds across the higher terrain in New Mexico. However,
with very little steering flow aloft, these storms are not expected
to make it to the forecast area before weakening. Surface troughing
across eastern New Mexico may help to give way to a few showers and
thunderstorms developing later this afternoon and early evening.
Thus, there is a slight chance for precipitation across the far
southwest Texas Panhandle and western portions of the South Plains.
With very warm temperatures and dewpoints in the 50s, the boundary
layer will be very dry and well mixed with high storm bases. Thus,
the main threats with any storm that develops would be strong to
marginally severe wind gusts due to a downburst with inverted V
soundings and very steep low level lapse rates. Given the lack of
shear, storm mode will be pulsey with short lived life cycles.

Meanwhile, this afternoon there is a cold front draped west to east
across the northern Texas Panhandle. An outflow boundary from an MCS
this evening across Kansas will help to push this weak surface cold
front southward into the far southern Texas Panhandle by tomorrow
morning. With the additional push of the outflow, there is a
potential this front is pushed farther south across the South and
Rolling Plains. Surface winds will return to the east southeast
overnight into tomorrow with a return of the moist upslope flow.
Temperatures may be slightly cooler in the 80s behind the stalled
frontal boundary and even ahead of the boundary temperatures should
be kept in the 90s and just shy of triple digits. A surface low will
be spinning over southeast New Mexico where storms are expected to
develop tomorrow afternoon with a slight chance for a few showers
and storms along the stalled front. Thus the main area for
precipitation chances tomorrow afternoon will be across the far
southwest Texas Panhandle and South Plains before moving east
through the night (see long term discussion below for more details).
Overall, the main threats during the initial storms in the afternoon
and early evening will be large hail and damaging wind gusts, along
with flooding due to slow storm motions around 10-15 mph paired with

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

On Sunday night, a deepening positively tilted trough is expected to
be located west of Baja California, with a ridge centered over
Colorado. A piece of energy from this low will phase with another
trough moving across British Columbia, and this should develop a
500mb low over the High Plains and Texas Panhandle Monday evening.
By Tuesday, this low will be located over eastern Kansas. In
conjunction with a ridge building over New Mexico, northwest flow
should prevail aloft Tuesday. Into Wednesday and Thursday, as the
ridge continues to build into the CWA, the flow aloft will be
more northerly, and subsidence will increase. On Friday, the
cutoff low near Baja should phase with a trough approaching the
Pacific Northwest, subsequently ejecting into the Four Corners
region. The low will open up as it moves into the Great Plains on
Saturday.

Through the day on Sunday, a weak front will have stalled across
the northern part of the CWA, and easterly upslope flow is
expected to prevail. Thunderstorms are expected to fire near or
just west of the Texas/New Mexico state line along a theta-e
gradient in the evening hours, and they should slowly propagate
eastward into the forecast area into Sunday night. Inverted-v
soundings indicate a risk for damaging winds with these storms,
and PWAT values well above climatology imply a heavy rain and
flood threat. The hail threat is not as high as in recent events
though we could see some golf balls in the stronger activity. On
Monday night, there will be another chance for thunderstorms. The
level of moisture and instability present likely depends on Sunday
night`s convection, but upper-level height falls over the High
Plains should support lift for initial thunderstorm development
on the high terrain of New Mexico and Colorado, which is expected
to move into west Texas during the evening hours. A modest
overnight low-level jet across the CWA will help to sustain
convection that moves into the forecast area. An upper-level high
will dry things out Wednesday and Thursday before a more
favorable pattern for late day convection returns on Friday and
Saturday evenings.

Fenske/Oz

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions will prevail. There are isolated showers with
embedded thunderstorms that are currently moving across the far
southcentral Texas Panhandle. These showers and thunderstorms are
not expected to affect any terminal at this time. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into the region
towards the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...51