538
FXUS64 KLUB 251914
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
214 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

As of early afternoon the dryline has begun to make steady eastward
progress eastward as it approaches the Caprock escarpment. Ahead of
the dryline moisture advection has been robust with a tongue of
surface dew point temperatures in excess of 70 degrees extending
northward through the Rolling Plains. The speed of the eastward
progress of the dryline will be key on whether there will be
convective initiation across the eastern column or two of counties
mid to late afternoon before the dry air overtakes the entire
forecast area. A slight chance mention along the eastern border of
the area pre-00Z still looks reasonable with a dry forecast beyond
that. The forecast area will then remain in a post-dryline air mass
through the remainder of the forecast period with winds veering to
west and likely staying a bit elevated overnight before becoming a
bit breezy with mixing Sunday morning and then a gradual decrease in
speeds as a surface trough settles southward through the Panhandle.
Dry air and downslope winds will result in another day of
temperatures well above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The overall pattern will be quiet for at least Monday passive cold
front moving into the region. An upper ridge will set up just to our
west on Tuesday. Southeasterly surface flow will allow for 50/60 dew
points to return to the FA ahead of a dryline Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Models continue to develop a weakness on the east
side of the upper ridge Tuesday afternoon as the dryline is passing
through the FA, allowing convective development along the dryline.
Models have pushed convective initiation further east than was
progged yesterday (along the Texas/New Mexico state line) as they
have the axis of the upper ridge slightly more eastward. The GFS is
more robust with convection while the ECMWF keeps convection more
tame and mostly to our east. The GFS has convective initiation along
the I27/US 87 corridor. While upper level dynamics leave more to be
desired, there is still a threat for storms to be strong to severe
with hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. Models
continue to differ with the prospects for additional precip (and the
overall upper pattern) Wednesday into the weekend. The GFS is more
friendly in terms of precip chances with shower and thunderstorms
being possible mid week into the weekend as several upper level
weaknesses move across the region. The ECMWF is less generous with
upper lift but does bring a strong cold front southward early
Saturday which helps to cool temps back into the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period as
dry air and west winds speed eastward across the forecast area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions continue to look
like a possibility mainly across the western South Plains Sunday
afternoon where relative humidity will again fall into single
digits. The biggest question for Sunday will be wind speeds. After
an initial increase in wind speeds mid-morning as higher momentum
air aloft is mixed southward, a surface trough will move southward
into the forecast area with a corresponding decrease in wind speeds.
How far south this trough gets will have the most effect on wind
speeds, but at this time it appears areas near the New Mexico state
line could have a fairly extended period of elevated conditions with
RFTI values a solid 2 to 3 and potential for brief periods of higher
values should wind speeds not decrease in line with current
expectations.&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ021>023-
027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...07