Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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331 FXUS64 KLUB 311947 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 247 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Southeasterly surface flow continues to sustain moisture east of a dryline from the Big Bend region that becomes increasingly diffuse northward into the South Plains. Thunderstorms have already begun to fire in the high terrain of New Mexico and are expected to propagate eastward through the afternoon and evening. Subsidence in the mid- levels and a cap near 750mb should prevent any convection from forming over the South Plains. However, northwest flow aloft may direct storms in northeast New Mexico toward the forecast area during the overnight hours. If storms enter the area, favorable moisture and instability will sustain convection at first, with the potential for severe wind gusts and a few instances of large hail with stronger cores. However, as the boundary layer stabilizes overnight, storm intensity should diminish. Because model guidance is unclear on when this process will occur, the eastward and southern extent of these storms is uncertain. Tomorrow`s weather setup is similar to today, with moisture and instability extending to the high terrain of New Mexico. The 500mb ridge is expected to slide slightly eastward and should continue to prevent convection over the forecast area during the afternoon. However, because afternoon highs should near convective temperatures, any surface boundary could provide a focus for thunderstorm development. The current assumption is that temperatures will remain just shy of convective temperatures, keeping the CWA dry through the afternoon. Across New Mexico, generally westerly flow aloft will allow storms to propagate eastward towards the South Plains and Texas Panhandle into the evening hours. Large hail and severe wind gusts are possible with storms that move east into the CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Storms over eastern New Mexico are expected to push eastward into the FA tomorrow evening just as an upper shortwave moves across the overhead ridge. While the highest risk for severe storms will be to our west, some storms could still produce one inch hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph. The upper shortwave should help sustain convection through much of the night before exiting to our east by sunrise. Models diverge with convective prospects Sunday afternoon along a dryline. The GFS keeps convection suppressed with an overhead ridge while the ECMWF keeps the upper ridge slightly to our east. For the time being, a chance of thunderstorms will be kept in the forecast given previous trends. Models agree with forming a blocking pattern over the southwestern CONUS by mid week, but there is some differences on placement of the upper ridge. The GFS brings the upper ridge over the southcentral CONUS vs the ECMWF which keeps the ridge to our west and places the FA under northwesterly flow. Models, however, agree with having a cold front push through by Wednesday helping to cool highs from the triple digits area wide to the low/upper 90s. They also agree with area wide precip chances late next week after the FROPA. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of this TAF period. Southeasterly winds may increase to around 15kt at LBB and PVW through the late afternoon/early evening before diminishing late this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon in the high terrain of eastern New Mexico and shift east through the evening. It is uncertain how far east these storms will propagate; therefore, prevailing thunderstorm mentions have been left out of the LBB and PVW 18Z TAFs. In the overnight hours, a line of thunderstorms is expected to move southeastward through the Texas Panhandle towards CDS, potentially clipping PVW. The timing of this complex is uncertain, but models indicate that storms may affect CDS at some point between 04-09Z. Hazards with these storms include frequent lightning, strong winds, and heavy rain, which may lower visibility. With abundant low-level moisture, low clouds may develop late tonight across the region, but low confidence precludes a mention in the TAF at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...58