Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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158 FXUS64 KLZK 292257 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 557 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Latest regional radar data indicate scattered light returns, partially aloft, across mainly southwest sections of the state. A few stronger returns were noted, approaching from eastern Oklahoma. All of the mentioned activity appear to be supported by a MCV, approaching from eastern Oklahoma. The MCV will continue eastward for at least several more hours, before dissipating. Western sections of the forecast area will be monitored for any convective systems that may approach from the plains. Support for such convective systems will increase during the rest of the forecast period. Several of these could affect the forecast area. Forecasts will continue to reflect uncertainties with regard to timing of these systems. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Relatively little has changed since the thinking yesterday. A progressive upper level pattern will continue thru the extended term. Arkansas will largely remain in a warm and moist airmass at the surface, and aloft numerous shortwaves will move across the area. As a result, showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for portions of the state thru the entire period. While the overall trend for severe weather has been on the downswing, I am still a little concerned about some of the afternoons where models have very high levels of instability forecast with an approaching shortwave. Like the models from yesterday, there is a trend toward ridging developing to the west during the period just beyond the extended term. This would put Arkansas at the eastern edge of the ridge. If this comes to fruition, Arkansas will likely see a period of more summer-like conditions, with very warm and humid weather and lower rain chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Some isolated to widely scattered convection will be possible early this evening...but chances for precip should decrease overnight. Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the Thu afternoon. Some additional isolated afternoon convection may develop on Thu...though more organized convection looks to develop for WRN AR by midday before things become more uncertain in the afternoon hrs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 62 80 63 79 / 10 10 20 50 Camden AR 65 82 65 81 / 20 30 30 70 Harrison AR 59 79 62 75 / 10 10 30 70 Hot Springs AR 64 81 65 80 / 20 30 40 70 Little Rock AR 67 82 67 82 / 20 20 40 60 Monticello AR 67 82 67 85 / 20 30 30 50 Mount Ida AR 64 80 64 79 / 20 30 40 80 Mountain Home AR 60 79 62 76 / 10 10 20 60 Newport AR 63 81 65 82 / 10 10 20 40 Pine Bluff AR 66 82 67 83 / 20 20 30 60 Russellville AR 64 81 66 79 / 20 10 40 70 Searcy AR 63 81 64 80 / 20 10 30 50 Stuttgart AR 67 81 67 83 / 20 20 30 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...62