Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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496 FXUS64 KLZK 300501 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Latest regional radar data indicate scattered light returns, partially aloft, across mainly southwest sections of the state. A few stronger returns were noted, approaching from eastern Oklahoma. All of the mentioned activity appear to be supported by a MCV, approaching from eastern Oklahoma. The MCV will continue eastward for at least several more hours, before dissipating. Western sections of the forecast area will be monitored for any convective systems that may approach from the plains. Support for such convective systems will increase during the rest of the forecast period. Several of these could affect the forecast area. Forecasts will continue to reflect uncertainties with regard to timing of these systems. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Relatively little has changed since the thinking yesterday. A progressive upper level pattern will continue thru the extended term. Arkansas will largely remain in a warm and moist airmass at the surface, and aloft numerous shortwaves will move across the area. As a result, showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for portions of the state thru the entire period. While the overall trend for severe weather has been on the downswing, I am still a little concerned about some of the afternoons where models have very high levels of instability forecast with an approaching shortwave. Like the models from yesterday, there is a trend toward ridging developing to the west during the period just beyond the extended term. This would put Arkansas at the eastern edge of the ridge. If this comes to fruition, Arkansas will likely see a period of more summer-like conditions, with very warm and humid weather and lower rain chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 All terminals will remain in VFR flight category in terms of CIGS and VSBY from early Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Thursday evening into late Thursday evening a complex of showers and thunderstorms will be approaching Arkansas impacting the western terminals earlier in the evening before impacting the remainder of sites near the early morning hours on Friday. The western and southeastern sites of KHOT, KADF, KPBF, and KLLQ may see CIGS drop to MVFR as the complex of storms approaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 80 63 79 67 / 10 20 50 70 Camden AR 82 65 81 66 / 30 30 70 60 Harrison AR 79 62 75 62 / 10 30 70 60 Hot Springs AR 81 65 80 65 / 30 40 70 70 Little Rock AR 82 67 82 68 / 20 40 60 70 Monticello AR 82 67 85 68 / 30 30 50 60 Mount Ida AR 80 64 79 64 / 30 40 80 70 Mountain Home AR 79 62 76 64 / 10 20 60 70 Newport AR 81 65 82 67 / 10 20 40 70 Pine Bluff AR 82 67 83 68 / 20 30 60 70 Russellville AR 81 66 79 66 / 10 40 70 70 Searcy AR 81 64 80 66 / 10 30 50 70 Stuttgart AR 81 67 83 69 / 20 30 50 70 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...74