639
FXUS64 KLZK 041820
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
120 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Remnant of overnight MCS that began in OK still lingering across
portions of srn and sern AR at this hour, producing a few showers
and areas of cloudiness. Otherwise most areas are generally under
VFR to MVFR cigs.

Models having difficulty deciding on whether or not additional
convection will develop this afternoon...and exactly where it will
happen. Generally speaking I have put VCTS in a number of the TAF
groups this afternoon, with TEMPO TSRA. If trends do not develop
as anticipated this may need to be adjusted.

Once again it appears that another MCS will develop overnight
across OK and move into portions of AR in the 10-12z
timeframe...which is reflected in TAFs. What is more uncertain is
how far the northern extent of the MCS remnant will hold together
as it moves into the state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

CAMS guidance continues to advertise a rather unsettled pattern
through Wednesday when a cold front finally swings through and
brings quiet conditions to close out the short term. Until then,
periods of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast.

Convection continues early this morning over western and southwestern
sections of the CWA. Storms are elevated in nature and large hail
will continue to be the primary concern although a few strong wind
gusts can not be ruled out. Earlier CAMS guidance was steadfast in
this convection morphing into some type of forward progressing MCS
of varying strength and moving it off to the southeast.

Latest HRRR solutions have backed off on the development of the MCS
but the NAMNST continues to be more aggressive, making this a
particularly tricky forecast. Regardless if this MCS pans out and
can get established, several short wave troughs will move through
the prevailing flow to keep at least chance POPS in the forecast
today.

Culprit of all of this is an upper level trough over the Northern
Rockies this morning. Trough expected to deepen as it moves into the
central plains later today and into the Ohio Valley by the end of
the period. Primary surface reflection will remain in the Canadian
Prairie Provinces but will drag a very well defined cold front through
the state Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the
boundary Tuesday night as it sinks south. Can not rule out some
stronger storms along the boundary with gusty winds the primary
concern this time. Once again, the HRRR is trying to develop an MCS
that would move into SE oklahoma and possibly SW Arkansas.

Precipitation chances will end from northwest to southeast in the
wake of the front during the day Wednesday as upper ridging builds
over the western CONUS placing the CWA in northwest flow aloft.

Despite this unsettled weather, temperatures will remain right
around normal for this time of year. High temperatures will be in
the mid to upper 80`s with lows ranging from the 60`s to lower 70`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Long Term: Thursday Thru Monday

THURSDAY/FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT:
Remnant MCS over central AR

In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow will continue over Arkansas
with a ridge remaining planted across the Four Corners region of the
CONUS. At the sfc, a dry cold front will move through the state from
north to south during the day on Thursday with sfc high pressure
moving into the region behind the frontal boundary late Thursday
into the day on Friday with the boundary becoming a stationary front
across the Deep South region of the CONUS well to south of the CWA.

During the Thursday through Friday Night period, expect overall dry
weather conditions with low to nil POPs across the CWA with party
cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:

In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow remains over Arkansas with a
series of shortwaves that will pass through the flow regime as a
negatively tilted ridge amplifies over the Western CONUS toward the
end of the long-term forecast period. At the sfc, a cold front
approaches the state from the north on Saturday into Sunday
increasing the chances for POPs across the CWA. On Monday, the cold
front will stall as stationary front across the southern portion of
Arkansas keeping POPs elevated through the end of the long-term
forecast period.

During the period of Saturday through Monday, expect numerous
chances for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front will track
from north to south across the state becoming stationary during the
day Monday.

Temperatures with respect to both low and high temperatures over the
entire long-term forecast period of Thursday through Monday will be
around normal to slightly above average compared to climatological
normals for this time of the year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  87  66  91 /  70  50   0   0
Camden AR         70  86  68  92 /  20  40  10  10
Harrison AR       66  84  63  86 /  80  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    69  87  66  93 /  40  40   0   0
Little Rock   AR  73  89  69  93 /  50  50   0   0
Monticello AR     72  87  70  93 /  30  60  10  10
Mount Ida AR      69  87  66  94 /  40  40   0   0
Mountain Home AR  68  85  63  87 /  80  20   0   0
Newport AR        72  86  67  91 /  70  50   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     72  87  69  92 /  60  50  10  10
Russellville AR   71  88  66  92 /  60  30   0   0
Searcy AR         71  87  66  91 /  60  50   0   0
Stuttgart AR      72  86  70  91 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ052-053-066-130-137-
140-141-230-237-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

AVIATION...53