887
FXUS64 KMAF 231713
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The dryline is in the process of mixing eastward early this
afternoon, and per latest observations, currently extends from
roughly just west of Gail to just east of Midland and to the west
of Dryden. A surface trough to the north will facilitate
increasing downslope flow this afternoon, further shunting the
dryline and associated moisture to the east, though given the
timing of the dryline`s progression coincident with peak heating,
a quick-hitting round of thunderstorms is possible mid to late
afternoon, mainly focused over the far northeastern Permian
Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains. Storms that develop may not
reach severe limits before moving east of the area, though
depending on the precise location of initiation and how quickly
updrafts can mature, large hail and damaging winds would be
possible. Any storms will be well to the east of the area by early
evening, a solution echoed by available high-resolution guidance.
Have updated the grids to account for this potential, with the
remainder of today`s forecast on track.

JP

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Quieter weather the next two days as temperatures rebound to the
upper 90s/low 100s with zonal flow aloft and clearing skies. Very
dry westerly flow will once again usher in critically low humidity
this afternoon, possibly as low as 2 percent, which will combine
with gusty winds to create critical fire weather conditions across
the west. A Red Flag Warning is in effect...more information can be
found in the Fire Weather Discussion below. The downsloping west
winds should also push temperatures as high as 110+ along the Rio
Grande and 95+ in the higher terrain across the south, so a Heat
Advisory is in effect for these areas. On Friday, models continue to
try to push a cold front down into Texas on the heels of an upper
level trough moving from the Dakotas up into Canada. If the front
does manage to get here Friday morning, similar to Wednesday, it
will stall out likely somewhere in the Permian Basin, and quickly
mix out in the afternoon as strong warm westerly flow wins out. With
the uncertainty of the front for Friday, have let NBM ride for
afternoon highs, which look to be mainly in the mid to upper 90s,
100s along the Rio Grande, and possible 80s/low 90s for the far
northern portions of the CWA. With dry westerly flow persisting,
precipitation chances are nil for the short term.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A hot weekend will transition to cooler temperatures next week as we
see a pattern change. Deep westerly flow will continue with slightly
stronger downslope flow forecast for Saturday. Very dry air along
with gusty winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions,
especially in the higher terrain. In addition to the fire weather
concerns, excessive heat will continue across the Big Bend and Lower
Trans Pecos where more Heat Advisories are likely. Sunday will be
similar although with less wind and a few degrees shaved off high
temperatures.

Bigger changes take place Monday as a strong shortwave moves across
the Plains and drags a cold front through the area. Confidence is
low regarding the front as some models have gone back and forth on
timing. NBM has been consistent in bringing highs back down to
normal behind the front. Return flow commences Tuesday helping to
bring Gulf moisture back into the region. A dryline will set up
against the higher terrain much of next week with periodic
disturbances providing an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms.
It`s too early to tell which days will be more active with regards
to convection, but given we are in our peak severe weather season
things could get busy once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Gusty west-
southwesterly winds are expected at all terminals this afternoon,
with gusts to 20-30kt common. Gusts will diminish after sunset,
and a cold front progged to move into the area toward daybreak
Friday will result in a northwesterly to northerly wind shift at
CNM, HOB, INK, and MAF late in the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Fire weather concerns increase today given a combination of
escalating factors. A very dry airmass will spread east today
across our area with RH values below 5 percent by this afternoon.
Little recovery is expected each night with these RH values
reappearing each day through the weekend. Winds will remain
generally under 15 mph for most locations except across the higher
terrain which will be influenced by deeper mixing pushing winds
to gust to near 40 mph at times. These stronger winds will lead to
critical fire weather conditions both today and again Saturday in
the stronger, wind-favored areas. Fuels continue to degrade
across the west and ERC values will reach extreme levels (>97th
percentile) this afternoon. Given these fuel conditions will exist
into the weekend another Fire Weather Watch is likely for Saturday
as weather conditions worsen. While dry air will spread across the
entire area, recent rains and green- up will help prevent major
concerns for fire starts further east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  95  59 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 63  94  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   70 103  67 106 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            66  98  63 102 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           61  85  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    59  91  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    52  90  51  94 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     63  95  59  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   64  95  60  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     60  98  59 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower
     Brewster County-Terrell.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...84