Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
370 FXUS64 KMAF 211745 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Current water vapor imagery shows a large upper level low over the California/Arizona border. The low will move east today with strongly divergent flow ahead of the low situated over eastern New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon and evening. Conditions will be favorable for severe thunderstorms to develop with CAPE values increasing from 24 hours ago and are now above 1500J/Kg. Forecast soundings show moderate lapse rates so the CAPE is tall and skinny, but 0-6km shear still supports a large hail/damaging wind threat. The presence of the low may allow convection to persist well after sunset and possibly even after midnight. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, perhaps a degree or two cooler due to increased cloud cover during the afternoon. Tonight should be the last night for lows in the 70s for most locations before a cold front moves into the area Sunday. The low pressure system over the Rockies moves into the Central Plains pushing a cold front south that reaches the I-20 corridor during the afternoon and quickly pushes into the Big Bend overnight. Additional rainfall will be possible with the frontal passage, heaviest rainfall will be along the front transitioning to a lighter, stratiform rain behind the front. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Surface high pressure builds in Monday behind the front continuing the falling temperature trend as highs hold in the 70s. The departing low in the Great Plains allows an amplified ridge to develop over the western United States. Northerly flow sets up over the Great Plains and models are getting into agreement that a trough will drop south and move across the CWA on Tuesday though there remains some uncertainty in the strength and timing. A stronger trough or even upper low could provide enough lift for scattered showers with moderate rainfall of a quarter of an inch or greater. The transitional seasons historically give us our highest rainfall totals so hopefully we will get some good rainfall even if low temperatures are cooling down and getting close to ending the growing season for eastern New Mexico and West Texas. A reinforcing shot of cooler temperatures is expected Wednesday before the western U.S. ridge migrates east and brings temps back up to near normal and ends rain chances. Hennig && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The primary concern this forecast period is low to medium (20-40%) potential for thunderstorms to impact western terminals this afternoon through early this evening. Have included TEMPO TS mention for CNM, HOB, and PEQ from roughly 20Z-02Z where confidence is highest for impacts including lightning, erratic gusty winds, and brief MVFR conditions in heavy rain and/or blowing dust. Significant uncertainty exists in impacts to the east, thus will monitor trends and amend as needed. Away from storms, elevated and gusty southeasterly winds will continue into tonight, with gusts to 20-25kt possible. A cold front moving into the region overnight through Sunday morning will veer winds to the northwest and north, with MVFR ceilings expected to develop into HOB and MAF near daybreak, persisting thereafter through the end of the period. Elsewhere, VFR with increasing clouds will prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 73 84 58 74 / 10 60 70 40 Carlsbad 63 79 57 76 / 20 0 20 30 Dryden 73 91 66 81 / 0 20 70 40 Fort Stockton 71 89 60 75 / 20 30 60 50 Guadalupe Pass 61 77 53 70 / 10 0 10 30 Hobbs 66 73 52 77 / 40 20 20 20 Marfa 62 86 54 75 / 20 20 40 60 Midland Intl Airport 72 84 58 74 / 20 40 60 40 Odessa 72 85 58 74 / 30 40 60 40 Wink 71 86 60 77 / 30 20 40 40 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...84