Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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986 FXUS64 KMAF 170358 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1058 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Similar to yesterday we are seeing Cu development across the Davis Mountains where daytime heating meets upslope, moist flow. A few of these storms could go severe once again as storm travel to the south. Further north, a weak dryline sits across the western Permian Basin while another boundary left over from storms last night lays across northeast portions of the region. Both of these boundaries could be a focus for storm development as we go through the afternoon. Elsewhere, the hot temperatures continue with many locations near or above 100 currently. The Heat Advisory continues for areas along and west of the Pecos River. Very similar conditions are expected Monday so will extend the advisory for the same locations another day. Isolated storms are possible once again in the Davis Mountains Monday afternoon. -Rick && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Not much has changed with the forecast heading in to mid and late week. Models agree with tropical moisture increasing across the area Wednesday and beyond as a tropical wave or possibly something more organized makes landfall along the Texas coast. The big question is how strong will the upper ridge over the central and eastern U.S. be? If this ridge is stronger and extends more into our area, most of the rain will stay mainly south of I-10 or into Mexico. If the ridge is weaker, much of the area could see rain, some of which could be heavy. Either way, higher moisture levels will mean much cooler temperatures. Highs will fall back into the 80s or even 70s late week! Stay tuned! -Rick && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. KMAF VWP shows a 35 kt LLJ in full swing tonight, which will keep winds elevated through the morning. Return flow continues Monday afternoon, gusty at times, w/forecast soundings developing a fairly widespread cu field, w/bases ~ 7-10 kft AGL. A 55+kt LLJ Monday night will keep return flow elevated then, as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 100 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 107 72 105 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 102 75 100 75 / 0 20 0 0 Fort Stockton 104 74 103 74 / 0 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 97 71 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 99 71 101 70 / 0 0 10 10 Marfa 99 64 99 63 / 0 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 100 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 99 75 99 74 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 104 76 106 75 / 0 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT Monday for Eddy County Plains- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...44