784
ACUS11 KWNS 111911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111910
NMZ000-COZ000-112115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Areas affected...Northern New Mexico to central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 111910Z - 112115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may be capable of strong to severe
downbursts, and perhaps large hail, this afternoon and evening along
the eastern slopes of the CO/NM Rockies. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to develop
within the higher terrain of the central Rockies from northern NM to
central CO. Over the past 30 minutes, some of this activity has
begun to propagate off the terrain towards the east/southeast as
downstream buoyancy gradually increases. Some uptick in convective
intensity is noted as well as, with additional thunderstorm
development expected along and east of the central CO Front Range
along a diffuse stationary boundary. Continued heating through late
afternoon will result in deep boundary-layer mixing with 0-3 km
lapse rates approaching 9 C/km - especially as temperatures climb
into the low 80s. Despite somewhat meager buoyancy (MLCAPE forecast
to only reach around 500 J/kg), forecast thermodynamic profiles
should be supportive of strong downbursts that may produce sporadic
wind gusts between 45-60 mph. A few stronger cells may be capable of
hail approaching severe limits, especially near the stationary
boundary where southeasterly low-level winds may support slightly
stronger deep-layer shear and better storm organization. Given the
overall meager kinematic environment and isolated nature of the
threat, watch issuance is not expected.

..Moore/Smith.. 06/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35220406 35040432 35000457 35210493 35540527 35910546
            36230531 36720516 37280506 37810522 38570520 38860526
            39190523 39350495 39370453 39330407 39290376 39100357
            38850349 38460352 37950357 36960367 36120380 35220406