242
ACUS11 KWNS 101732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101731
SCZ000-GAZ000-101930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Areas affected...southeast GA into extreme southern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 101731Z - 101930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of hail to 2 inch diameter
and gusts to 65 mph are expected to develop over the next 1-2 hours.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is expected by 19z.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating has allowed for inhibition to rapidly
erode early this afternoon. Widespread vertically developing cumulus
is noted where skies have remained mostly clear across
southern/central GA. Development is a bit slower further east into
SC where thin cloud cover has mildly muted heating. Regardless,
another 1-2 hours of heating will result continued erosion of
inhibition downstream.

Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F amid modest midlevel
lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km is resulting in moderate destabilization
from west to east along a surface boundary. While deep-layer flow
will remain mostly unidirectional from the southwest, increasing
speed with height is supporting elongated, somewhat straight
hodographs, and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt. This
environment will support supercells storms capable of large hail.
With time, convective coverage should become quite widespread and
clustering my further enhance strong/severe wind gust potential.
Convection should develop/increase in coverage by 19-20z and a watch
will likely be needed in the next hour or so.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   32348374 32838325 33248218 33368107 33517997 33457951
            33367922 33187900 32947895 32587918 31868025 31418081
            31138136 31098273 31288337 31608376 32018382 32348374