335
ACUS11 KWNS 091956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091956
COZ000-NMZ000-092200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Areas affected...Central Colorado to northern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 091956Z - 092200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may pose an sporadic
large hail and severe wind threat through the late afternoon hours.
Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has been well underway over the
past several hours within the higher terrain of the central/southern
Rockies of central CO to northern NM. Initial, orographically-driven
cells have largely struggled to organize or persist for more than
roughly 30 minutes due to poor environmental wind shear and residual
capping over the lower elevations to the east. However, buoyancy is
slowly increasing amid rising low-level temperatures with recent RAP
mesoanalyses estimates showing SBCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg along
the CO Front Range. MRMS hail/vertical ice metrics have shown a
slow, but steady increase over the past few hours as updrafts
realize the improving thermodynamic environment. As such, a few
instances of severe hail appear possible through late afternoon as
updrafts continue to develop within the upslope flow regime. The
severe hail threat may be regionally highest along the CO Front
Range where more persistent 10-15 knot southeasterly flow is
supporting some hodograph elongation, which may promote better storm
organization and longevity.

Continued boundary-layer mixing through late afternoon should also
promote increasing cold pool intensity/depth. This may allow for
cold-pool-driven propagation of one or more storm clusters off the
higher terrain with an attendant increase in severe wind potential
through early evening. This scenario is hinted at in recent HRRR
solutions across southeast CO/northeast NM, but confidence in this
occurring at any one location is low given the inherent
low-predictability of this high CAPE/low shear environment.

..Moore/Gleason.. 06/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...

LAT...LON   35500599 35730635 36250647 37360646 37870651 38430649
            38950647 39480610 39660572 39650491 39440460 39180449
            38820446 38340442 38020433 37460414 36660411 36130422
            35680477 35420545 35370578 35500599