582
ACUS11 KWNS 050429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050428
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-050630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Oklahoma...North Texas...Far
Western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 392...393...

Valid 050428Z - 050630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 392, 393
continues.

SUMMARY...A linear MCS, associated with strong wind gusts, will move
across southern and eastern Oklahoma over the next few hours, and
into far north Texas and far western Arkansas later tonight.
Although intensity with the line has decreased, there still remains
a possibility that the line could re-generate during the overnight
period.

DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows a line of strong
thunderstorms over southern and east-central Oklahoma. This line is
associated with a linear MCS that is located near the northern edge
of a strongly unstable airmass. Immediately to the south of the MCS,
MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 3500 to 5000 J/kg range.
RAP forecast soundings overnight within this airmass near the Red
River and in eastern Oklahoma have substantial directional shear in
the lowest 3 km, which combined with the strong instability,
suggests the line could be associated with a few marginally severe
wind gusts. It still remains possible the line could re-generate as
it moves southeastward along the instability gradient.

..Broyles.. 06/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34069848 33499726 33299578 33459464 33769422 34499415
            35529423 36039486 36109550 35879602 35609642 35249669
            34919693 34859789 34629856 34069848