Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
569 FXUS64 KMEG 201709 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1209 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1019 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A few clouds associated with a dissipating MCS are moving across northeast Arkansas this morning, otherwise skies are sunny over much of the Mid-South. Temperatures across the region are in the low to mid 80s. Dry weather and very warm temperatures are expected across the entire Mid-South this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. If Memphis hits 90 degrees today, it will be the first time that has happened since October 3, 2023. Current forecast looks good with no update needed. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Warm and dry weather will remain across the Mid-South through Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s as high pressure remains over the area. A pattern shift will take place late Tuesday and into early Wednesday as several disturbances move over the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and will extend through Memorial Day under this unsettled pattern. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Current temperatures at this hour are in the low 60s to low 70s with mostly calm winds at the surface and clear skies across the Mid-South. A thin cirrus shield will slowly moving in from the west heading closer to sunrise. This thin shield should limit fog development in areas along and west of the Mississippi River. Areas along the Tennessee River and areas near lakes will continue to fog with reduced visibilities. Shortly after sunrise, fog will lift as wind speeds increase and radiational cooling decreases. Surface high pressure and upper level ridging remains in place over the Mid- South resulting in warm and benign weather through Tuesday. South winds and the aforementioned ridge will continue to usher in warm, dry air from the southwest leading to a pretty warm start to our week with many areas across the region seeing afternoon highs near to slightly above 90 degrees. Our main weather story will begin late Tuesday and into early Wednesday as ridging begins to weaken and build east. A weak surface low looks to set up over the southern, Upper Mississippi Valley with an attached cold front. This front looks to begin pushing showers and thunderstorms, northwest to southeast, across the Mid-South beginning early Wednesday morning. These showers and thunderstorms will be moving into a pretty decent convective environment with surface based CAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg, 0-6 Bulk Shear values around 35 kts, mid-level lapse rates 6.8+ C/km, and a decent swath of warm air advection giving extra lift. The best severe environment looks to pan out in areas along and west of the Mississippi River along a slightly pronounced shortwave. The Storm Prediction Center has these areas highlighted under a Slight (15%) Risk for Wednesday. We are monitoring models and convective parameters closely as uncertainty still remains pretty high and parameters remain mainly surface based. Bottom line, a conditional chance for severe weather exists Wednesday. By Friday, the aforementioned cold front looks to lift north as a warm front giving support to continued shower and thunderstorm movement across the Mid-South. Several shortwaves along quasi- zonal flow look to move over the Mid-South through Memorial Day, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast. We are carrying 30-40% PoPs in the grids through Memorial Day. Looks like we`ll be having a pretty active end to our May. Be on the lookout... AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period. S winds between 6-10 kts will decrease this evening, then increase on Tuesday to 8-12 kts with a few occasional higher gusts. AMD NOT SKED included at JBR due to missing weather element data. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...CJC